Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums

Last updated: January 2009

This table summarizes the latest bond ratings and appropriate default spreads for different countries. While you can use these numbers as rough estimates of country risk premiums, you may want to modify the premia to reflect the additonal risk of equity markets. To estimate the long term country risk premium, I start with the country rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and estimate the default spread for that rating (based upon traded country bonds) over a default free government bond rate. This becomes a measure of the added country risk premium for that country. I add this default spread to the historical risk premium for a mature equity market (estimated from US historical data) to estimate the total risk premium. In the short term especially, the equity country risk premium is likely to be greater than the country's default spread. You can estimate an adjusted country risk premium by multiplying the default spread by the relative equity market volatility for that market (Std dev in country equity market/Std dev in country bond). I have used the emerging market average of 1.5 (equity markets are about 1.5 times more volatile than bond markets) to estimate country risk premium. I have added this to the historical premium for mature markets of about 5% to get the total risk premium.

Country Region Long-Term Rating Adj. Default Spread Total Risk Premium Country Risk Premium
Albania Eastern Europe & Russia B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Argentina Central and South America B3 900 18.50% 13.50%
Armenia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2 400 11.00% 6.00%
Australia Australia & New Zealand Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Austria [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Azerbaijan Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
Bahamas Caribbean A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Bahrain Middle East A2 160 7.40% 2.40%
Barbados Caribbean A3 175 7.63% 2.63%
Belarus Eastern Europe & Russia B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Belgium [1] Western Europe Aa1 70 6.05% 1.05%
Belize Central and South America Caa1 1200 23.00% 18.00%
Bermuda Caribbean Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Bolivia Central and South America B3 900 18.50% 13.50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe & Russia B2 750 16.25% 11.25%
Botswana Africa A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Brazil Central and South America Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
Bulgaria Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 260 8.90% 3.90%
Cambodia Asia B2 750 16.25% 11.25%
Canada North America Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Cayman Islands Caribbean Aa3 120 6.80% 1.80%
Chile Central and South America A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
China Asia A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Colombia Central and South America Baa3 260 8.90% 3.90%
Costa Rica Central and South America Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
Croatia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa2 225 8.38% 3.38%
Cuba Caribbean Caa1 1200 23.00% 18.00%
Cyprus [1] Western Europe Aa3 120 6.80% 1.80%
Czech Republic Eastern Europe & Russia A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Denmark Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Dominican Republic Caribbean B2 750 16.25% 11.25%
Ecuador Central and South America Ca 260 8.90% 3.90%
Egypt Africa Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
El Salvador Central and South America Baa2 225 8.38% 3.38%
Estonia Eastern Europe & Russia A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Fiji Islands Asia Ba2 400 11.00% 6.00%
Finland [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
France [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Germany [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Greece [1] Western Europe A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Guatemala Central and South America Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
Honduras Central and South America B2 750 16.25% 11.25%
Hong Kong Asia Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
Hungary Eastern Europe & Russia A3 175 7.63% 2.63%
Iceland Western Europe Baa1 200 8.00% 3.00%
India Asia Ba2 400 11.00% 6.00%
Indonesia Asia Ba3 525 12.88% 7.88%
Ireland [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Isle of Man Financial Center Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Israel Middle East A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Italy [1] Western Europe Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
Jamaica Caribbean Ba2 400 11.00% 6.00%
Japan Asia Aa3 120 6.80% 1.80%
Jordan Middle East Baa3 260 8.90% 3.90%
Kazakhstan Eastern Europe & Russia Baa1 200 8.00% 3.00%
Korea Asia A2 160 7.40% 2.40%
Kuwait Middle East Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
Latvia Eastern Europe & Russia A3 175 7.63% 2.63%
Lebanon Middle East B3 900 18.50% 13.50%
Lithuania Eastern Europe & Russia A2 160 7.40% 2.40%
Luxembourg [1] Financial Center Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Macao Asia Aa3 120 6.80% 1.80%
Malaysia Asia A3 175 7.63% 2.63%
Malta [1] Western Europe A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Mauritius Africa Baa2 225 8.38% 3.38%
Mexico Central and South America Baa1 200 8.00% 3.00%
Moldova Eastern Europe & Russia Caa1 1200 23.00% 18.00%
Mongolia Asia B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Montenegro Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2 400 11.00% 6.00%
Morocco Africa Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
Netherlands [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
New Zealand Australia & New Zealand Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Nicaragua Central and South America B3 900 18.50% 13.50%
Norway Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Oman Middle East A2 160 7.40% 2.40%
Pakistan Asia B3 900 18.50% 13.50%
Panama Central and South America Ba1 300 9.50% 4.50%
Papua New Guinea Asia B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Paraguay Central and South America B3 900 18.50% 13.50%
Peru Central and South America Baa3 260 8.90% 3.90%
Philippines Asia B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Poland Eastern Europe & Russia A2 160 7.40% 2.40%
Portugal [1] Western Europe Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
Qatar Middle East Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
Romania Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 260 8.90% 3.90%
Russia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa1 200 8.00% 3.00%
Saudi Arabia Middle East A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Singapore Asia Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Slovakia Eastern Europe & Russia A1 140 7.10% 2.10%
Slovenia [1] Eastern Europe & Russia Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
South Africa Africa A2 160 7.40% 2.40%
Spain [1] Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Caribbean B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Suriname Caribbean Ba3 525 12.88% 7.88%
Sweden Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Switzerland Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Taiwan Asia Aa3 120 6.80% 1.80%
Thailand Asia Baa1 200 8.00% 3.00%
Trinidad and Tobago Caribbean Baa1 200 8.00% 3.00%
Tunisia Africa Baa2 225 8.38% 3.38%
Turkey Asia Ba3 525 12.88% 7.88%
Turkmenistan Eastern Europe & Russia B2 750 16.25% 11.25%
Ukraine Eastern Europe & Russia B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
United Arab Emirates Middle East Aa2 100 6.50% 1.50%
United Kingdom Western Europe Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
United States of America North America Aaa 0 5.00% 0.00%
Uruguay Central and South America B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Venezuela Central and South America B1 650 14.75% 9.75%
Vietnam Asia Ba3 525 12.88% 7.88%

 

Last updated: January 2009

Aswath Damodaran