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The Dark Side of Valuation - 3rd Edition
This web site is designed to support "The Dark Side of Valuation", the third edition. If you are looking for the earlier editions, you can find the first edition here and the second edition here. The publisher is Financial Times Prentice Hall. You can navigate the site by either going to individual chapters and getting supporting material by chapter, or by going to the supporting material directly. The supporting material includes:
  1. Illustrations: The excel spreadsheets backing up most of the illustrations in the book can be downloaded from this site.
  2. Readings: These are readings from business and academic publications that supplement the specific topic.
  3. Spreadsheets: These are spreadsheets that supplement the topic. They are in Microsoft Exce, and can be used on either a Mac or Windows system.
  4. Datasets: These are useful datasets to supplement each chapter. They generally include industry averages for key variables and represent updates on many of the tables in the book.
  5. Blog Posts: I have written about many of the topics and companies referenced in this book on my blog in the last decade and you can find relevant postings here.
  6. YouTube Videos: These are YouTube videos that I have made either to support blog posts or teaching that relate to the topic at hand.
You can read the preface to the book by clicking here. If you are an instructor using this book, click here .

You can pick the chapter that you would like to go to, to see illustrations, solutions and other supporting material.
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6
Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12
Chapter 13 Chapter 14 Chapter 15 Chapter 16 Chapter 17 Chapter 18
Chapter 19          

Or you can pick the material that you are interested in.
Spreadsheets   Datasets References

Chapter 1: The Dark Side of Valuation
Topic Details
Readings
  1. The Dark Side of Valuation - The 1999 edition
  2. Living with Noise: Investing and Valuation in the Face of Uncertainty
Blog Posts
  1. DCF Myth 3: You cannot do valuation, when there is too much uncertainty
YouTube
  1. Journeying to the Dark Side: Coping with Uncertainty

Chapter 2: Intrinsic Valuation
Topic Details
Illustrations Illustration 2.1: Estimating Cash flows for a firm – 3M in 2007
Illustration 2.2: Estimating Cost of Equity – 3M
Illustration 2.3: Estimating the Cost of Debt – 3M
Illustration 2.4: Estimating cost of capital – 3M
Illustration 2.5: Estimating Growth- 3M
Illustration 2.6: High Growth versus Terminal Value Assumptions: 3M
Illustration 2.7: A valuation of 3M
Data Sets
  1. Cashflow & Risk Data, by Sector
  2. Cost of Capital, by Sector (US & Global)
Spreadsheets
  1. divginzu.xls: A general dividend discount model
  2. fcfeginzu.xls: A general FCFE model for valuing equity
  3. fcffsimpleginzu.xls: A general FCFF model for valuing firms
Readings
  1. Valuation Basics (courtesy of the Motley Fool)
  2. Why don't they teach you to invest like Warren Buffett?
  3. An open letter to Warren Buffett (from a non-admirer)
Blog Posts
  1. Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
  2. If you have a D(iscount) Rate and a C(ash) F(low), you have a DCF
  3. A DCF is an exercise in modeling and number crunching
YouTube
  1. Valuation: Four Lessons to Take Away (Google Talks)

Chapter 3: Probabilistic Approaches to Valuation

Topic Details
Illustrations Illustration 3.1: Valuing a company with scenario analysis
Illustration 3.2: Valuing a biotech company with a decision tree
Illustration 3.3: Valuing 3M – Monte Carlo Simulation (Need Crystal Ball installed)
Data Sets  
Spreadsheets  
Readings
  1. Simulations, Decision Trees and Scenario Analysis: Probabilistic Approaches to Risk
Blog Posts
  1. DCF Myth 3.2: If you don't look, its not there
YouTube
  1. Stare into the Abyss: Facing up to Uncertainty

Chapter 4: Relative Valuation
Topic  Details
Overheads Download as pdf file
Illustrations Illustration 4.1: Comparing PE ratios and growth rates across firms: Beverage Companies
Illustration 4.2: Revisiting the Beverage Sector: Sector Regression
Data Sets
  1. Price Earnings Ratio, by Sector (US & Global)
  2. Book Value Multiples, by Sector (US & Global)
  3. Revenue Multiples, by Sector (US & Global)
  4. EV/EBITDA Multiples, by Sector (US & Global)
Spreadsheets
  1. eqmult.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the price earnings ratio for a stable growth or high growth firm, given its fundamentals.
  2. firmmult.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate firm value multiples for a stable growth or high growth firm, given its fundamentals.
Readings
  1. Malkiel on PE ratios
  2. Interest rates and PE ratios
  3. Low price to book ratios: Not always a bargain
Blog Posts
  1. Back to Apple: Thoughts on Value, Price and the confidence gap (2013)
  2. Facebook buys Whatsapp: Value and Pricing Perspectives (2014)
  3. A Violent Earnings Season: Value and Pricing Perspectives (2016)
  4. The Twitter IPO: Why a good trade can be a bad investment and vice versa (2013)
  5. Icahn exits, Buffet Enters: Value and Pricing Effects of Big Name Investors (2016)
YouTube
  1. A Violent Earnings Season: Value and Pricing Perspectives
  2. Icahn exits, Buffet enters: Whither Apple?

Chapter 5: Option Valuation
Topic  Details
Data Sets optvar.xls: There is a dataset on the web that summarizes standard deviations and variances of stocks in various sectors in the United States
Spreadsheets
  1. optst.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the value of a short term option, when the expected dividends during the option life can be estimated.
  2. optlt.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the value of an option, when the underlying asset has a constant dividend yield.
  3. bstobin.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the parameters for a binomial model from the inputs to a Black-Scholes model.
  4. warrant.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the value of an option, when there is a potential dilution from exercise.
Readings
  1. Making real options real
  2. Literature on real options in venture capital and R&D
  3. Real Options in Valuation
  4. Real Options and Business Strategy
  5. How much is flexibility worth?
  6. Get Real
  7. Reality Check: A skeptical look at real options
  8. The Real Power of Real Options
Blog Posts
  1. Contrarian Value Investing: An Option Bet?
  2. Rebirth and Reincarnation: Escaping the Corporate Death Spiral (2013)
YouTube
  1. The Essence of Real Options

Chapter 6: A Risky Base: A Risky Riskfree Rate
Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 6.1: Currency mismatch effects on valuation
Illustration 6.2: Valuing in Mature Market Currency
Illustration 6.3: Valuing in the local currency
Illustration 6.4: Interest Rate views and Valuation
Data Sets
  1. T.Bill and T.Bond rates: 1928-Current
  2. Riskfree Rates, by Currency
Spreadsheets
  1. Riskfree Rate Calculator
Readings
  1. Into the Abyss: What if nothing is risk free?
Blog Posts
  1. January 2017 Data Update 3: Cracking the Currency Code
  2. January 2018 Data Update 4: The Currency Conundrum
  3. Dealing with Low Risk free Rates (2015)
  4. Negative Risk free rates: Impossible, Unnatural or just Unusual
YouTube
  1. The Riskfree Rate
  2. Cracking the Currency Code
  3. Dealing with Negative Risk free Rates

Chapter 7: Risky Ventures: Assessing the Price of Risk

Topic  Details
Illustrations

Illustration 7.1: Valuing 3M- Pre and post market crisis.

Data Sets
  1. histretSP.xls: Summarizes historical returns on stocks, T.Bonds and T.Bills going back to 1926.
  2. bondspreads.xls: This dataset includes default spreads for bonds in different ratings classes.
  3. ctryprem.xls: Contains the updated ratings for countries and the risk premiums associated with each.
  4. histimpl.xls: Shows the inputs used to calculate the premium in each year for the U.S. market.
Spreadsheets
  1. implprem.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the implied equity premium in a market.
Readings
  1. Classic Rule of Risk Premium under attack (WSJ)
  2. Greenspan on the Risk Premium
  3. Estimating Risk Premiums
  4. Those were the days... An argument for lower risk premiums
  5. Historical Risk Premiums: A reexamination
  6. Country bond default spreads over time\
  7. The Equity Risk Premium (ERP): Determinants, Estimation and Implications
Blog Posts
  1. Equity Risk Premiums and the Fear of Catastrophe (2010)
  2. Equity Risk Premiums: Bullish or Bearish Indicator (2013)
  3. An ERP Retrospective: Looking forward and looking back (2015)
  4. Data Update 2: The Buyoancy of US Equities (2018)
YouTube
  1. Estimating an Implied ERP
  2. Estimating the ERP for a Company

Chapter 8: Macro Matters: The Real Economy
Topic  Details
Data Sets
  1. spearn.xls: Earnings changes, by year, for the S&P 500 going back to 1960
  2. Inflation and Earnings: Inflation rates and Earnings on S&P 500
  3. GDP and Earnings on S&P 500
Spreadsheets
  1. macrodata.xls: Summary annual and quarterly data for US (Inflation, Interest Rates, GDP Growth and Exchange Rates)
Readings
  1. Macroeconomic Perspectives and Investing (Vanguard)
Blog Posts
  1. Macro Bets: A General Framework (2009)
  2. The Brexit Effect (2016)
  3. The US Presidential Election Surprise
  4. A Tale of Two Markets (2017)
YouTube
  1. A Tale of Two Markets
  2. The Election Surprise (US Presidential Election in 2016)
  3. Brexit: The Signals among the Noise (2016)

Chapter 9: Baby Steps: Valuing Young and Start-up Companies
Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 9.1: Valuing Secure Mail – Venture Capital Approach
Illustration 9.2: Estimating cash flows for a young business- Secure Mail Software
Illustration 9.3: Estimating cash flows for Healthy Meals - An Organic Restaurant
Illustration 9.4: Estimating discount rates for Secure Mail Software
Illustration 9.5: Estimating discount rates for Healthy Meals
Illustration 9.6: Estimating terminal value and value today for Secure Mail
Illustration 9.7: Estimating terminal value and value today for Healthy Meals
Illustration 9.8: Adjusting valuation of Secure Mail Software for survival
Illustration 9.9: Adjusting valuation of Healthy Meals for key person discount
Illustration 9.10: Valuing Equity Claims in Secure Mail Software
Illustration 9.11: Estimating the effect of illiquidity on equity value – Healthy Meals
Illustration 9.12: Valuing Healthy Meals with Private transaction Multiples
Illustration 9.13: Valuing Secure Mail – Relative Valuation
Illustration 9.14: Valuing the option to expand into database systems– Secure Mail
Data Sets
  1. totalbeta.xls: Total Betas by sector (for use with privately owned companies, with undiversified investors)
Spreadsheets
  1. fxffsimpleginzu.xls: Valuing a young, start-up company
  2. liqdisc.xls: Spreadsheet to estimate illiquidity discount on value
Readings  
Blog Posts
  1. A Disruptive Car Ride to Riches: A Valuaton of Uber in June 2014 (2014)
  2. Big Markets, Overconfidence and the Macro Delusion (2015)
  3. Billion Dollar Tech Babies: A Blessing of Unicorns (2015)
  4. Venture Capital: It is a pricing, not a value game (2016)
YouTube
  1. Venture Capital: It is a pricing, not a value game

Chapter 10: Shooting Stars: Valuing Growth Companies
Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 10.1: Growth and Scale – Snap and Shake Shack
Illustration 10.2: Reinvestment, Growth and Value – Effects of inconsistencies
Illustration 10.3: Valuing Operating Assets - Snap
Illustration 10.4: Valuing Operating Assets – Shake Shack
Illustration 10.5: From Operating Asset to Equity Value per share – Snap and Shake Shack
Illustration 10.6: A Relative Valuation of Snap
Illustration 10.7: A Relative Valuation of Shake Shack
Data Sets
  1. Historical growth in Revenues and Earnings (US and Global)
  2. Fundamental Growth in Operating Income (US and Global)
  3. Profit Margins, by Sector (US and Global)
Spreadsheets
  1. higrowth.xls: Values a high growth firm, based on revenue growth and target margins.
  2. chgrowth.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the expected growth rate in operating income for a firm where the return on capital is expected to change over time.
Readings
  1. Estimating Growth
  2. ROIC rules
  3. Measuring ROE and ROC rigtht
  4. The inside of earnings growth in the 1990s
  5. Evaluating analyst growth estimates
  6. Competitive Advantage Period
  7. Growth at young firms: How long does it last?

Blog Posts

  1. Growth: A Four Part Series (2011)
    1. The Limits of Growth
    2. Scaling up Growth
    3. The Value of Growth
    4. Growth and Management Credibility
  2. How much is growth worth? (2012)
  3. Alibaba's IPO: Valued right, but is it priced right? (2015)
  4. GoPro: Camera or Smartphone? (2014)
YouTube
  1. Growth and Value: A 2018 Update
  2. Management Matters: Facebook and Twitter (2016)
  3. Icarus or Lazarus: GoPro and Linkedin (2016)
  4. Tesla: A Story Stock but what's the story?

Chapter 11: Not so staid: Valuing Mature Companies

Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 11.1: Stable growth, unstable inputs…
Illustration 11.2: Acquisition inconsistency – Valuing Cisco
Illustration 11.3: Debt and Value – The upside of debt and no downside
Illustration 11.4: Valuing an acquisitive mature company – Revisiting Cisco
Illustration 11.5: The Cost of Capital Approach – Hormel Foods , Enhanced cost of capital & APV
Illustration 11.6: A Valuation of Hormel Foods- Status Quo versus Optimal
Illustration 11.7: The Probability of Control Changing – Hormel Foods
Illustration 11.8: Market Prices and the Expected Value of Control
Illustration 11.9: Valuing voting and non-voting shares
Data Sets
  1. Excess Returns (Accounting Returns and Costs of equity & capital), by sector (US and Global)
Spreadsheets
  1. valenh.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to estimate the approximate effect of changing the way a firm is run on its value.
Readings
  1. Value Enhancement: Back to Basics
  2. EVA as elixir
  3. An EVA debate
  4. The Value of Control
Blog Posts
  1. HP's Breakup: Value Enhancement, Pricing Game or Management Hype (2014)
  2. Acquisition Alchemy: Creating Value from Deals (2012)
  3. Explaining a Paradox: Why Good (Bad) Companies can be Bad (Good) Investments
YouTube
  1. Big Deal but is it a Good Deal? The Inbev-SAB Miller Merger
  2. The Greatest Cash Machine in History: An Analysis of Apple (2017)

Chapter 12: The Inevitable End: Valuing Companies in Decline and Distress

Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 12.1: Valuing Sears – An Over Optimistic Valuation in September 2008
Illustration 12.2: Discount Rate contortions: Las Vegas Sands
Illustration 12.3: Valuing a company in irreversible decline: Sears in September 2008
Illustration 12.4: Estimating the probability of bankruptcy using bond price: Las Vegas
Illustration 12.5: Estimating Distress Sale Proceeds in January 2009: Las Vegas Sands
Illustration 12.6: Valuing Las Vegas Sands with Distress valued separately
Illustration 12.7: Valuing Las Vegas Sands: Adjusted Present Value
Illustration 12.8: Valuing Equity as an Option
Illustration 12.9: Firm Value and Equity Value
Illustration 12.10: Equity Value and Volatility
Illustration 12.11: Probabilities of default and Default Spreads
Illustration 12.12: Valuing Equity as an option – Las Vegas Sands in January 2008
Illustration 12.13: Choosing distressed  comparables
Illustration 12.14: Forward Multiples and Distress
Data Sets
  1. dbtfund.xls: There is a dataset on the web that summarizes book and market value debt ratios by industry group in the United States for the most recent year
Spreadsheets
  1. normearn.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to normalize the earnings for a firm, using a variety of approaches
  2. distress.xls: Estimates the probability that a firm will cease existence as a going concern - i.e. the probability of distress.
Readings
  1. Warning signs of distress
  2. Valuing Distressed Firms
Blog Posts
  1. Decline and Denial: Thoughts on Blackberry End Game and Microsoft as a Value Trap
  2. The Walking Dead: Blackberry, Yahoo and the Zombie Apocalypse (2014)
  3. The Yahoo! Chronicles: Is this the end game?
  4. The Compressed Tech Life Cycle: The Managerial Challenge (2015)
YouTube
  1. Yahoo, The End Game?
  2. The Compressed Tech Life Cycle: The Managerial Challenge

Chapter 13: Ups and Downs: Valuing Cyclical and Commodity Companies

Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 13.1: Valuing Exxon Mobil with 2008 Earnings
Illustration 13.2: EBITDA Multiples – Specialty Chemicals Companies
Illustration 13.3: Valuing Toyota – Normalized Earnings
Illustration 13.4: Valuing Exxon Mobil – Normalized commodity prices
Illustration 13.5: Valuing Toyota with adaptive growth
Illustration 13.6: Valuing Exxon Mobil – Simulation (Crystal Ball)
Illustration 13.7: PE ratios for oil companies
Illustration 13.8: Valuing an oil company – Gulf Oil
Data Sets
Spreadsheets
  1. normearn.xls: Normalizes earnings for a firm, using historical or industry averages
Readings
  1. Commodity Price Super Cycles (Bank of Canada)
Blog Posts
  1. Commodity Company Valuations (2009)
  2. Go where it is darkest: When company, country, currency and commodity risks collide (2014)
  3. In Search of Investment Serenity (2015)
  4. No Mas, No Mas! The Vale Chronicles (2015)
YouTube
  1. It's Pitch Black: My Vale Experiment Ends

Chapter 14: Mark to Market: Valuing Financial Service Companies

Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 14.1: Dividends and Growth: Wells Fargo
Illustration 14.2: Wells Fargo Banks – February 2009
Illustration 14.3: Excess Return Valuation – Goldman Sachs
Illustration 14.4: Comparing PE ratios: Insurance Companies
Illustration 14.5: Price to Book Value Ratios: Small commercial banks
Data Sets  
Spreadsheets
  1. eqexret.xls: Estimates the value of a financial service firm from the expected excess returns in the future
  2. bankvaluation.xls: A model to value a bank with regulatory capital treated as reinvestment.
Readings
  1. Creative Accounting at Banks
  2. Breach of Trust: Valuing Financial Service Companies (2009)
Blog Posts
  1. Breach of Trust: Valuing Banks, post-Crisis
  2. Ruminations on Rogue Trading (2011)
  3. Deutsche Bank: A Greek Tragedy at a German Bank
YouTube
  1. Deutsche Bank: Valuation when it is darkest

Chapter 15: Invisible Investments: Valuing Companies with Intangible Assets

Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 15.1: Capitalizing R&D expenses: Amgen in February 2009
Illustration 15.2: Capitalizing Brand Name Advertising – Coca Cola in 2009
Illustration 15.3: Capitalizing Recruitment and Training Expenses: Cyber Health Consulting
Illustration 15.4: Valuing Amgen
Illustration 15.5: Valuing large pharmaceutical firms with PE ratios
Illustration 15.6: Fully Diluted Approach to estimating Value per Share
Illustration 15.7: Treasury Stock Approach
Illustration 15.8: Option Value Approach
Illustration 15.9: Valuing with expected option issues
Illustration 15.10: Adjusting PE ratio for options outstanding
Data Sets
  1. Profit Margins, by Sector (US and Global)
Spreadsheets
  1. R&Dconv.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to convert R&D expenses from operating to capital expenses.brandnamevalue.xls: This spreadsheet allows you to value the brand name in a company, relative to a generic company.
Readings
  1. Dealing with Management Options
  2. Option backlash at companies
  3. Options at dot.com firms
  4. The growth of option compensation and problems
  5. Market based solutions to pricing employee options
  6. R& D's effects on earnings
  7. The Value of Intangibles
Blog Posts
  1. The Brand Name Advantage (2013)
  2. Accounting Inconsistencies (2010)
  3. Acquisiton Accounting: More Plug Variable than Asset
  4. Stock-based Compensation: Pricing and Value Effects
  5. Checkmate or Stalemate: Valeant's Fall from Grace
  6. Divergence in the Drug Business (2015)
  7. Valeant: Damaged Goods or Deeply Discounted Drug Company (2017)
  8. Price Premium for the Prancing Horse: The Ferrari IPO (2015)
  9. Valuing the Star Wars Franchise (2015)
YouTube
  1. Divergence in the Drug Business
  2. Checkmate or Stalemate: Valeant's Fall from Grace (2015)
  3. Valeant: Damaged Goods?
  4. A Price Premium for the Prancing Horse: The Ferrari IPO
  5. Intergalactic Finance: Valuing the Star Wars Franchise (2015)

Chapter 16: Volatility Rules: Valuing Emerging Market Companies

Topic  Details
Illustrations Illustration 16.1: Estimating Lambdas – Gerdau Steel and Tata Motors
Illustration 16.2: Estimating Costs of Debt and Equity – Gerdau Steel and Tata Motors
Illustration 16.3: Valuing Tata Motors
Illustration 16.4: Valuing Gerdau Steel
Illustration 16.5: Valuing Tata Motors - Indian Auto firms
Illustration 16.6: Valuing Gerdau Steel: Steel companies listed in the United States
Data Sets
  1. ctryprem.xls: Contains the updated ratings for countries and the risk premiums associated with each.
Spreadsheets
  1. Equity Risk Premiums, by Country (Updated)
Readings
  1. Estimating Company Risk Exposure to Country Risk
Blog Posts
  1. If it is a strategic growth investment in China, the numbers don't matter! Or do they?
  2. Developed versus Emerging Markets: Convergence or Divergence? (2013)
  3. Data Update 5: Country Risk in 2018
YouTube
  1. Country Risk: A 2018 Update

Chapter 17: Going to Pieces: Disaggregated Value

Topic  Details
Illustrations
  1. Illustration 17.1: Valuing United Technologies – Aggregated Basis
  2. Illustration 17.2: Valuing United Technologies – Disaggregated Basis
  3. Illustration 17.3: Sum-of-the-parts Relative Valuation of United Technologies
  4. Illustration 17.4: A User-based Valuation of Uber
Data Sets
  1. Price Earnings Ratio, by Sector (US & Global)
  2. Book Value Multiples, by Sector (US & Global)
  3. Revenue Multiples, by Sector (US & Global)
  4. EV/EBITDA Multiples, by Sector (US & Global)
Spreadsheets
  1. breakupvaluation.xls: Valuing a company in pieces
Readings  
Blog Posts
  1. Breaking up in easy to do (2011)
  2. Corporate Breakups: Value and Pricing Effects
  3. User/Subscriber Economics: An Alternate View of Uber's Value (2017)
  4. User/Subscriber Economics: Value Dynamics (2017)
  5. Deconstructing Amazon Prime: Loss Leader or Value Creator? (2017)
YouTube
  1. A User-based Valuation of Uber (2017)
  2. User/Subscriber Economics: Value Dynamics (2017)
  3. Valuing Amazon Prime (2017)

Chapter 18: The Cynic's Corner: Value versus Price

Topic  Details
Illustrations

 

Data Sets
  1. Price of Gold & Silver (Historical), with other macro variables
Spreadsheets  
Readings
  1. The Golden Constant (Erb & Harvey)
Blog Posts
  1. Thoughts on the Golden Rule (2013)
  2. Bitcoin Q&A: Bubble or Breakthrough? Cult or Currency? (2014)
  3. Crypto Currencies: Hype, hope and hoopla! (2016)
  4. Bitcoin: Asset, Currency, Commodity or Collectible (2017)
  5. Bitcoin Backlash: Back to the Drawing Board (2017)
  6. Storied Asset Sales: Trophy Asset Value and Price (2015)
YouTube
  1. Crypto Currency: Hype, hope and hoopla!
  2. Bitcoin: Asset, Currency, Commodity or Collectible (2017)
  3. Bitcoin Backlash (2017)

Chapter 19: Lighting the Way: Vanquising the Dark Side

Topic  Details
Readings  
Blog Posts
  1. Investing and Valuation: Lessons from the Renaissance (2016)
  2. Faith, Feedback and Fear: The Valeant Test (2016)
  3. The Search for Investment Serenity (2015)
  4. Active Investing: Searching for the Elusive Edge (2016)
YouTube
  1. Brunelesschi's Dome: Investing Lessons from Florence
  2. Faith, Feedback and Fear (2016)