Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums

Last updated: July 2016

This table summarizes the latest bond ratings and appropriate default spreads for different countries. While you can use these numbers as rough estimates of country risk premiums, you may want to modify the premia to reflect the additonal risk of equity markets. To estimate the long term country equity risk premium, I start with a default spread, which I obtain in one of two ways:
(1) I use the local currency sovereign rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and estimate the default spread for that rating (based upon traded country bonds) over a default free government bond rate. For countries without a Moody's rating but with an S&P rating, I use the Moody's equivalent of the S&P rating. To get the default spreads by sovereign rating, I use the CDS spreads and compute the average CDS spread by rating. Using that number as a basis, I extrapolate for those ratings for which I have no CDS spreads.
(2) I start with the CDS spread for the country, if one is available and subtract out the US CDS spread, since my mature market premium is derived from the US market. That difference becomes the country spread. For the few countries that have CDS spreads that are lower than the US, I will get a negative number.
You can add just this default spread to the mature market premium to arrive at the total equity risk premium. I add an additional step. In the short term especially, the equity country risk premium is likely to be greater than the country's default spread. You can estimate an adjusted country risk premium by multiplying the default spread by the relative equity market volatility for that market (Std dev in country equity market/Std dev in country bond). I have used the emerging market average of 1.34 (estimated by comparing a emerging market equity index to an emerging market government/public bond index) to estimate country risk premium.I have added this to my estimated risk premium of 6.0% for mature markets (obtained by looking at the implied premium for the S&P 500) to get the total risk premium.

Country Africa Moody's rating Rating-based Default Spread Total Equity Risk Premium Country Risk Premium CDS Default Spread (net of US) Total Equity Risk Premium Country Risk Premium
Abu Dhabi Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 1.29% 8.06% 1.81%
Albania Eastern Europe & Russia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Andorra (Principality of) Western Europe Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% NA NA NA
Angola Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Argentina Central and South America B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% 4.95% 13.18% 6.93%
Armenia Eastern Europe & Russia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Aruba Caribbean Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Australia Australia & New Zealand Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.65% 7.16% 0.91%
Austria Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.63% 7.13% 0.88%
Azerbaijan Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% NA NA NA
Bahamas Caribbean Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
Bahrain Middle East Ba2 3.37% 10.97% 4.72% 4.37% 12.37% 6.12%
Bangladesh Asia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Barbados Caribbean Caa1 8.41% 18.02% 11.77% NA NA NA
Belarus Eastern Europe & Russia Caa1 8.41% 18.02% 11.77% NA NA NA
Belgium Western Europe Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% 0.89% 7.50% 1.25%
Belize Central and South America Caa2 10.10% 20.39% 14.14% NA NA NA
Bermuda Caribbean A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% NA NA NA
Bolivia Central and South America Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe & Russia B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Botswana Africa A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% NA NA NA
Brazil Central and South America Ba2 3.37% 10.97% 4.72% 3.94% 11.77% 5.52%
Bulgaria Eastern Europe & Russia Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.06% 9.13% 2.88%
Burkina Faso Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Cambodia Asia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Cameroon Africa B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Canada North America Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Cayman Islands Caribbean Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% NA NA NA
Cape Verde Africa B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Chile Central and South America Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% 1.37% 8.17% 1.92%
China Asia Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% 1.66% 8.57% 2.32%
Colombia Central and South America Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.77% 10.13% 3.88%
Congo (Democratic Republic of) Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Congo (Republic of) Africa B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Cook Islands Australia & New Zealand B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Costa Rica Central and South America Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 4.26% 12.21% 5.96%
Côte d'Ivoire Africa Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Croatia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2 3.37% 10.97% 4.72% 2.88% 10.28% 4.03%
Cuba Caribbean Caa2 10.10% 20.39% 14.14% NA NA NA
Curacao Caribbean A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% NA NA NA
Cyprus Western Europe B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% 3.31% 10.88% 4.63%
Czech Republic Eastern Europe & Russia A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 0.88% 7.48% 1.23%
Denmark Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.47% 6.91% 0.66%
Dominican Republic Caribbean B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Ecuador Central and South America B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Egypt Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% 5.39% 13.80% 7.55%
El Salvador Central and South America Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Estonia Eastern Europe & Russia A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 0.86% 7.45% 1.20%
Ethiopia Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Fiji Asia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Finland Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.52% 6.98% 0.73%
France Western Europe Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 0.78% 7.34% 1.09%
Gabon Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Georgia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Germany Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.48% 6.92% 0.67%
Ghana Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Greece Western Europe Caa3 11.21% 21.94% 15.69% NA NA NA
Guatemala Central and South America Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% NA NA NA
Guernsey (States of) Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% NA NA NA
Honduras Central and South America B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Hong Kong Asia Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.73% 7.27% 1.02%
Hungary Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 2.03% 9.09% 2.84%
Iceland Western Europe Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 1.33% 8.11% 1.86%
India Asia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 2.34% 9.53% 3.28%
Indonesia Asia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 2.52% 9.78% 3.53%
Iraq Middle East B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Ireland Western Europe A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 1.23% 7.97% 1.72%
Isle of Man Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% NA NA NA
Israel Middle East A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 1.23% 7.97% 1.72%
Italy Western Europe Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.14% 9.25% 3.00%
Jamaica Caribbean Caa2 10.10% 20.39% 14.14% NA NA NA
Japan Asia A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 0.76% 7.31% 1.06%
Jersey (States of) Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% NA NA NA
Jordan Middle East B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Kazakhstan Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 2.79% 10.16% 3.91%
Kenya Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Korea Asia Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 0.79% 7.36% 1.11%
Kuwait Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% NA NA NA
Kyrgyzstan Eastern Europe & Russia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Latvia Eastern Europe & Russia A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 1.19% 7.92% 1.67%
Lebanon Middle East B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% 5.26% 13.61% 7.36%
Liechtenstein Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Lithuania Eastern Europe & Russia A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 1.09% 7.78% 1.53%
Luxembourg Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Macao Asia Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% NA NA NA
Macedonia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Malaysia Asia A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 2.09% 9.18% 2.93%
Malta Western Europe A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% NA NA NA
Mauritius Asia Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Mexico Central and South America A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 2.32% 9.50% 3.25%
Moldova Eastern Europe & Russia B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Mongolia Asia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Montenegro Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Montserrat Caribbean Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% NA NA NA
Morocco Africa Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 2.32% 9.50% 3.25%
Mozambique Africa Caa1 8.41% 18.02% 11.77% NA NA NA
Namibia Africa Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% NA NA NA
Netherlands Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.53% 6.99% 0.74%
New Zealand Australia & New Zealand Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.73% 7.27% 1.02%
Nicaragua Central and South America B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Nigeria Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Norway Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.43% 6.85% 0.60%
Oman Middle East Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Pakistan Asia B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% 5.92% 14.54% 8.29%
Panama Central and South America Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.19% 9.32% 3.07%
Papua New Guinea Asia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Paraguay Central and South America Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% NA NA NA
Peru Central and South America A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 2.03% 9.09% 2.84%
Philippines Asia Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 1.65% 8.56% 2.31%
Poland Eastern Europe & Russia A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% 1.44% 8.27% 2.02%
Portugal Western Europe Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 3.91% 11.72% 5.47%
Qatar Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 1.61% 8.50% 2.25%
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) Middle East A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% NA NA NA
Romania Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 1.67% 8.59% 2.34%
Russia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 2.92% 10.34% 4.09%
Rwanda Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Saudi Arabia Middle East A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 2.06% 9.13% 2.88%
Senegal Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Serbia Eastern Europe & Russia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Sharjah Middle East A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% NA NA NA
Singapore Asia Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Slovakia Eastern Europe & Russia A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% 0.95% 7.58% 1.33%
Slovenia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 1.52% 8.38% 2.13%
South Africa Africa Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 3.40% 11.01% 4.76%
Spain Western Europe Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 1.62% 8.52% 2.27%
Sri Lanka Asia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
St. Maarten Caribbean Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Caribbean B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Suriname Central and South America B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Sweden Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.46% 6.89% 0.64%
Switzerland Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.62% 7.12% 0.87%
Taiwan Asia Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% NA NA NA
Thailand Asia Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% 1.68% 8.60% 2.35%
Trinidad and Tobago Caribbean Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
Tunisia Africa Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% 5.77% 14.33% 8.08%
Turkey Western Europe Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 3.01% 10.46% 4.21%
Turks and Caicos Islands Caribbean Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Uganda Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Ukraine Eastern Europe & Russia Caa3 11.21% 21.94% 15.69% NA NA NA
United Arab Emirates Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% NA NA NA
United Kingdom Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.85% 7.44% 1.19%
United States of America North America Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.44% 6.87% 0.62%
Uruguay Central and South America Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
Venezuela Central and South America Caa3 11.21% 21.94% 15.69% 32.59% 51.88% 45.63%
Vietnam Asia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% 2.99% 10.44% 4.19%
Zambia Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA

 

For more details, download the excel spreadsheet that contains this data on my website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/ctrypremJuly16.xls
If you are interested in my approach to computing the equity risk premium, download my magnum opus (just kidding):
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2742186

And my paper on measuring country risk
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2812261

Last updated: July 2016

Aswath Damodaran