Web Casts: Equity Instruments - Fall 2004

This 26-session equity valuation class will be taped starting September 8, 2004 and the lectures will be available as Real Player files (You can download Real Player for free by going to http://www.real.com). You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. The quality of the video and audio leaves much to be desired but it will get better over time. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page for the class.
Introduction to Valuation
Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation (256 pages). If you prefer two slides per page, click here.
Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation (227 pages) (If you prefer two slides per page, click here)
Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement (212 pages) If you prefer two slides per page, click here.
Part IV: Closing Presentation

Session (Click here) Topics covered Lecture notes
1 (9/8/04) Introduction to Class
A Philosophical Defense of Valuation
Syllabus for class
Project Description
Introduction to Valuation (Pg 1-4)
2 (9/13/04) Approaches to Valuation
Efficient and inefficient markets
Discounted Cashflow Valuation
- Equity versus Firm Valuation
Introduction to Valuation (Pg 5-End)
Packet 1 (Pg 1-7)
3 (9/15/04) Valuation: Dividends, FCFE and FCFF
Estimating Discount Rates
- Consistency Principle
- Estimating Riskfree Rates
Packet 1 (Pg 8-25)
First Weekly Challenge Reconciling firm and equity valuation Weekly Challenge
Solution
4 (9/20/04) Risk Premiums
- Historical Risk Premiums: Pluses and Minues
- Country Risk Premiums
- Implied Equity Risk Premiums
Packet 1 (Pg 26-40)
5 (9/22/04)

More on implied equity risk premiums
Historical versus Implied premiums
Betas
- Regression beta woes
- Alternatives to regression betas
- Bottom up Betas

Packet 1 (41-58)
Second Weekly Challenge Estimating country risk premiums Weekly Challenge
Solution
6 (9/27/04)

More on bottom-up betas
Cost of Debt
- Using the interest rate on a bond
- Using bond ratings
- Synthetic Ratings
Cost of Capital
Introducing Cashflows

Packet 1 (58-78)
7 (9/29/04)

Estimating Current Earnings
- Accounting Adjustments for operating leases and R&D
- One-time Charges
- Normalization
Tax Rates

Packet 1 (79- 95)
Third Weekly Challenge Estimating free cashflow to the firm Weekly Challenge
Solution
8 (10/04/04) Capital Expenditures and Depreciation
Non-cash Working Capital
Estimating free cashflow to equity
Estimating Growth
- Historical growth
- Analyst estimates
Packet 1 (96-123)

9 (10/06/04)
(Quiz in first 30 minutes)

First quiz , solution as well as the distribution of scores on the quiz.
Growth Rates from fundamentals
Packet 1 (124-139)
Fourth Weekly Challenge Fundamental growth Weekly Challenge
Solution
10 (10/11/04) Growth for Negative Earnings companies
Terminal Value
Choosing the Right DCF Model
Packet 1 (140-160)
11 (10/13/04) Dealing with loose ends in valuation
- Cash and marketable securities
- Holdings in other companies
- Management options and warrants
Packet 1 (161-191)
Fifth Weekly challenge Management Options Weekly Challenge
Solution
12 (10/18/04) Valuation Examples
- Valuing a bank (Amro)
- Valuing the S&P 500
- FCFE valuations
Packet 1 (192-215)
13 (10/20/04) More valuation examples
- The value of corporate governance
- Dealing with Distress in valuation
Packet 1 (216-236)
Sixth Weekly Challenge Circularity in Cost of Capital Calculation Weekly Challenge
Daimler valuation
Solution
14 (10/25/04) The Dark Side of Valuation
- Valuing young companies: The estimation challenge
Packet 1 (237-256)
15 (10/27/04) Relative Valuation
- Why it matters....
- Classifying Multiples
- A Four Step process for analyzing multiples
- PE Ratios
Packet 2 (1-21)

16 (11/1/04)
(Quiz in first 30 minutes)

Second quiz , solution as well as the distribution of scores on the quiz.
PE Ratios across markets
PE ratios across time
Packet 2 (21-39)
17 (11/3/04)
PE Ratios continued
PEG Ratios
Packet 2 (40-76)
Seventh Weekly Challenge PEGY Ratio Weekly Challenge
Solution
Mystery Project Relative Valuation of Large Market Cap companies

Project
Data set

18 (11/8/04) Relative PE Ratios
EV/EBITDA Multiples
Packet 2 (77-110)
19 (11/10/04) Price to Book Ratios
Value to Book Ratios
Price to Sales Ratios
Packet 2 (111-149)
20 (11/15/04)

Relative Valuation of young companies
EV/Sales Ratios
The Value of a Brand Name
Choosing the Right multiple

Packet 2 (150-186)
21 (11/17/04) Valuing Private Businesses
Estimating Discount Rates
Estimating Cashflows
The Valuation Motive and Value
Illiquidity Discounts
Packet 2 (187-213)
22 (11/22/04)
(Quiz in first 30 minutes)
Third quiz , solution as well as the distribution of scores on the quiz. Packet 2 (214-229)
23 (11/24/04)
The Allure of Real Options
Key Tests for Real Options
The Option to Delay
Valuing patents as options
Packet 3 (1-30)
Ninth Weekly challenge Valuing a patent Weekly Challenge
Solution
24 (11/29/04) Valuing a company with patents
Valuing undeveloped natural resource options
Valuing the option to expand
Packet 3 (31-56)
25 (12/1/04) Valuing the option to abandon
The value of financing flexibility
Valuing equity in a deeply, troubled firm
- Why equity has value even in troubled firms
- Conflicts between debt and equity investors
- Conglomerate mergers
Packet 3 (57-95)
26 (12/6/04)

Valuing Equity in troubled firms: Closing Thoughts
Valuing acquisitions
- Steps in process
- The Value of Control
- The Value of Operating Synergy

Packet 3 (96-129)
27 (12/8/04)

The Value of Financial Synergy
- Diversification, tax benefits, cash slack and excess debt capacity
Value Enhancement
- Value versus Price enhancement
- Paths to value enhancement

Packet 3 (130-161)
28 (12/13/04) Value Enhancement (continued)
EVA: The Bottom Line
Closing Thoughts on Valuation
Packet 3 (162-End)
Closing Presentation

12/20/04
Final Exam

Take the final exam and check out the solution.