Web Casts: Valuation - Fall 2009

This 26-session equity valuation class will be taped starting September 9, 2009, and the lectures are accessible as live streams. You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. The quality of the video and audio leaves much to be desired but it will get better over time. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page .
Introduction to Valuation
Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation (258 pages). If you prefer two slides per page, click here. (Updated for Fall 2009 class)
Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation (196 pages) (If you prefer two slides per page, click here ( Updated for Fall 2009 class)
Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement (171 pages) If you prefer two slides per page, click here (Updated for Fall 2009 class)
Part IV: Closing Presentation

This page will include the webcasts from the current class. The AV system used to record the lectures has changed and I think it is much improved. The prior semester's webcasts can be found here.

Session (Click here) Topics covered Lecture notes

1 (9/9/09)
Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)


Introduction to Class

Syllabus for class
Project Description
Introduction to Valuation

2 (9/11/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Approaches to Valuation
Introduction to DCF valuaation
Firm vs Equity Valuation
Packet 1: 1-10

3 (9/16/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

The Big Picture of Valuation
Riskfree Rates
- Necessary Ingredients
- What if the government is not default free?

Kennecott cashflow page

Packet 1: 11-30

Weekly challenge # 1
Reconciling firm and equity valuation Weekly challenge #1
Solution

4 (9/18/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Equity Risk Premiums
- What are they?
- Historical Risk Premiums
- Country Risk Premiums
- Company Exposure to Country Risk
- Implied Equity Risk Premiums
Packet 1: 31-52

5 (9/23/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Equirty Risk Premia and Bond default spreads
Equity Risk Premia and Real Estate Cap Rates
Implied premia for emerging markets
Betas
- The problem with regression betas
- Solutions
Packet 1: 52-72
Weekly Challenge # 2

Estimating country risk premiums (or)
Implied Premium versus Riskfree Rate

Country premium challenge and solution
Implied premium challenge, data and solution

6 (9/25/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Updated ERP for September 2009
The Cost of Debt
Why we use market value debt ratios..
Cost of Capital - From one currency to another...

ERP Computation Spreadsheet: 9/30/09

Packet 1: 73-83

7 (9/20/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Hybrid Securities
Measuring Earnings
- Updated values
- Corrrecting for leases
- Correcting for R&D
Packet 1: 84-103

8 (10/7/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the first quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class.
- Accounting fraud
- Dealing with money losing companies
- Tax rates
- Cap Ex
Packet 1: 104-113
Weekly Challenge # 3

Adjusting Operating Earnings

Weekly challenge
Solution

9 (10/12/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Working Capital: Definition and Forecasting
Cash flow to Equity: Dividends, Earnings and FCFE
Expected growth
- The problems with historical growth
- Analyst and Management forecasts of growth
- Fundamental Growth
Packet 1: 114-139

10 (10/14/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Fundamental Growth
- EPS versus Net Income
- Organic vs Efficiency Growth
-Operating Income Growth
-Growth with money losing companies
Terminal Value
-Why multiples don't work
- Consistency rules (Growth rate, Length of growth, Excess Returns)

Packet 1: 140-162
Weekly Challenge # 4A Terminal Value Mechanics Weekly challenge
Solution

11 (10/19/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Terminal value: Final thoughts
Picking the "right" DCF model
Loose ends in valuation
- The value of cash
- The value of cross holdings
Packet 1: 163-184

12 (10/21/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Other missed assets?
The value of complexity
Defining debt: Cost of capital versus Debt to net out...
Equity Options
Packet 1: 184- 210
Weekly Challenge # 5 Dealing with management options Weekly challenge
Solution

13 (10/26/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Valuation examples
- Implied growth rate & Target prices
- Financial service firms: pre and post crisis
- Valuing the S&P 500
- Negative FCFE and dilution effects

Packet 1: 211-228

14 (10/28/08)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Valuing Corporate Governance
Lambdas and value
The Dark Side of Valuation
- Valuing young companies
Packet 1: 229-244
Weekly Challenge # 6 Circular Reasoning in DCF valuation Weekly Challenge
Daimler valuation
Solution

15 (11/2/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Valuing companies with R&D
Dealing with uncertainty in valuation
Valuing declining and distressed companies
Macro effects on valuation
Relative Valuation
- Introduction
- Definition and Descriptive Tests
Packet 1: 244-258
Packet 2: 1-9

16 (11/4/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the second quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class.

Analysis and Application Tests
The PE Ratio
- Definiton
- Descroption
- Deternimnats

Packet 2: 10-22

17 (11/9/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

More on PE ratios
- Comparing PE ratios across markets
- Comparing PE ratios across companies
- Cross sectional regressions

PEG Ratios
- Definition and Determinants

Packet 2: 23-61

18 (11/11/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

PEG Ratios- Applicaitons
Value Multiples
- EV/EBITDA and determinants
Price to Book Ratios
Packet 2: 62-99
Weekly Challenge # 7 Analyzing the PEGY ratio Weekly challenge
Solution

19 (11/16/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Visualizing cheap companies - PBV versus ROE
EV to Book Capital Ratios
Finding the companion variable
PS and EV/Sales Ratios
Brand Name Value
Packet 2: 100-143

20 (11/18/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Choosing between multiples
Sector versus Market Relative Valuation
Private Company Valuation
- The absence of market prices
- Holes in the financial statements
Total Beta and diversification
Illiquidity
Packet 2: 144-185
Weekly Challenge # 8 Relative Valuation versus DCF valuation Weekly challenge
Solution

21 (11/23/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the third quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class.

Valuing a private company for a public offering
Real Options: Introduction
- The Essence of Real options
- Key tests for real options

Packet 2: 186-End
Packet 3: 1-14

22 (11/30/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Option Pricing Redux
The Option to Delay
- Valuing Patents
- Valuing undeveloped natural reserves
Packer 3: 15-43

23 (12/2/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Valuing natural resource companies
The option to expand
- Valuing the option
- Implications for young, growth companies
The option to abandon and the value of flexibility
Valuing equity as an option
Packet 3: 44-86

24 (12/7/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Final thoughts on valuing equity as an option
Acquirers' Anonymous: Seven Steps to Sobriety
- Evidence on acquisitions
- Acquisition tests
Packet 3: 87-119

25 (12/9/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

More acquisition tests
Price versus Value Enhancement
Pathways to Value Enhancement
The value of control

Packet 3: 120-152

26 (12/14/09)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Closing thoughts on Value Enhancement
Dante meets DCF: Ten Sins in Valuation
Project Findings
Closing Presentation
  Take the final and check out the solution.