Web Casts: Equity Instruments - Spring 2003

This 26-session equity valuation class will be taped starting January 27, 2003 and the lectures will be available as Real Player files (You can download Real Player for free by going to http://www.real.com). You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. The quality of the video and audio leaves much to be desired but it will get better over time. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page for the class.
Introduction to Valuation
Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation (260 pages). If you prefer two slides per page, click here.
Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation (238 pages)
Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement (238 pages) If you prefer two slides per page, click here.
Part IV: Closing Presentation

Session (Click here) Topics covered Lecture notes
1 (1/27/03) Introduction to Class
A Philosophical Defense of Valuation
Syllabus for class
Project Description
Introduction to Valuation (Pg 1-7)
2 (1/29/03)
  • Valuation Approaches
  • Introduction to DCF valuation (Equity versus Firm)
  • Introduction to Valuation (8-End)
  • Packet 1: 1-15
First Weekly Challenge Reconciling Equity and firm valuation
3 (2/3/03)
  • Estimating Discount Rates
    • Riskfree Rates
    • Historical Risk Premiums
Packet 1: 16-34
4 (2/5/03)
  • Implied Equity Risk Premiums
  • Betas: Regression and Bottom-up Betas
  • Cost of debt: Ratings and Synthetic Ratings
Packet 1: 35-54
Second Weekly Challenge Estimating Country Risk Premiums
5 (2/10/03)
  • From cost of debt to cost of capital
  • Estimating earnings
    • Updating Earnings
    • The operating lease and R&D adjustment
Packet 1: 55-78
6 (2/12/03)
  • Dealing with one-time and extraordinary charges
  • Adjusting for negative earnings
  • The Right Tax Rate to use in estimating earnings
  • What should go into net cap ex?
  • Estimating working capital needs
  • From cashflow to firm to cashflow to equity
Packet 1: 79-100
Third Weekly Challenge Estimating FCFF
7 (2/19/03)

Historical Growth

  • Arithmetic versus Geometric averages
  • Dealing with negative earnings
  • Size and Growth

Analyst Estimates of Growth
Fundamental Growth Rates
- Growth in EPS, Net Income and Operating Income

Packet 1: 101-128
Fourth Weekly Challenge Estimating Fundamental Growth The Challenge
The Solution

8 (2/24/03)

(Quiz in first 30 minutes)

Take the first quiz and check out the solution to it. (You can grade yourself)

Stable Growth
Approaches for estimating terminal value
Fundamentals in stable growth

Packet 1: 129-144
9 (2/26/03)

Choosing the right valuation model
Loose Ends in Valuation
- Valuing Cash and Marketable Securities
- Valuing Cross Holdings
- Dealing with management options

Packet 1: 145-175
Fifth Weekly challenge Dealing with management options The Challenge
The Solution
10 (3/3/03)

Valuation Examples

  • Stable Growth Dividend Discount Model
  • Two-stage Dividend Discount Model
  • Stable growth FCFE Model
  • Two-stage FCFE Model
Packet 1: 176-204
11 (3/5/03)

Valuation Examples

  • New Information and Value
  • Emerging Market valuation
  • The Corporate governance discount
Packet 1: 205-233
Sixth Weekly Challenge Take the challenge with Daimler. The Challenge
Daimler valuation
Daimler Circular valuation
12 (3/10/03)

Valuation Examples

  • Valuing distressed companies
  • Valuing young companies
Packet 1: 234-260
13 (3/12/03)

Relative Valuation

  • Why do people like relative valuation?
  • Categorizing Multiples
  • The four steps in using mutliples
  • PE Ratio Basics
Packet 2: 1-26
14 (3/24/03)

Earnings Multiples

  • PE Ratio examples
  • PE lower than growth = cheap?
  • PEG ratios
Packet 2: 27-67
15 (3/26/03) Relative PE Ratios
Value Multiples
Value to EBITDA
Packet 2: 68-101
Seventh Weekly Challenge Analyzing the PEGY ratio Challenge
Solution
16 (3/31/03)

Take the quiz and check out the solution
Price to Book Ratios

Packet 2: 102-122
Mystery Project This project is due 4/14/03. It is a group project.

Description

Data

17 (4/2/03)
  • Undervalued firms: Price to Book Ratios
  • Price to Sales Ratios
  • Enterprise value to Sales Ratios
Packet 2: 123-165
18 (4/7/03)
  • Choosing the Right Multiple
  • Valuing Private Companies
    • Estimating discount rates and cashflows
    • Valuation: Private buyer versus Publicly traded firm
Packet 2: 166-208
19 (4/9/03)
  • Illiquidity Discounts for Private Companies
  • The Value of Control
    • Minority discounts
    • Voting versus Non-voting shares
  • IPO Valuation
Packet 2: 209-233
20 (4/14/03)

Introduction to Option Pricing
The Three Tests for Real Options
The Option to Delay
Valuing a Patent as an Option

Packet 3: 1-29
21 (4/16/03)
  • Valuing companies with patents
  • Natural Resource Options
  • Valuing Options to Expand: The Exclusivity Test
  • Valuing Options to Abandon
Packet 3: 30-65
22 (4/21/03)

Take the quiz and check out the solution

Valuing equity in a distressed company as an option
- Set up
- Equity value and Option Life
- The Conflict between Stockholders and Bondholders

Packet 3: 66-89
23 (4/23/03)

Valuing equity in troubled firms in practice
Acquisitions
- The five steps in an acquisition
- Valuing Control

Packet 3: 90-124
24 (4/28/03)

Acquisition Valuation
- Valuing Operating Synergy
- Valuing Financial Synergy
- Does synergy exists and who gets the benefits?

Value Enhancement
- Value versus Price Enhancement
- The Paths to Value Enhancement

Packet 3: 125-159
25 (4/30/03)

Value Enhancement
- Increasing cashflows from assets in place
- Increasing expected growth
- Increasing length of growth period
- Reducing cost of capital

Alternate Approaches to Value Enhancement
- Economic Value Added

Packet 3: 160-198
26 (5/4/03)

More on EVA
Closing Thoughts
- Summary of your project findings
- Parting Advice (to be taken with a grain of salt)

Packet 3: 199-222

Closing Presentation

 

Take the final and check out the solution

If you have taken all of the quizzes and the final, you can see what your grade would have been in this class (Honor system)