Web Casts: Equity Instruments - Spring 2004

This 26-session equity valuation class will be taped starting January 26, 2004 and the lectures will be available as Real Player files (You can download Real Player for free by going to http://www.real.com). You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. The quality of the video and audio leaves much to be desired but it will get better over time. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page for the class.
Introduction to Valuation
Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation (261 pages). If you prefer two slides per page, click here. (Updated for Spring 2004 class)
Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation (241 pages) (If you prefer two slides per page, click here) (Updated for Spring 2004 class)
Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement (223 pages) If you prefer two slides per page, click here.(Updated for Spring 2004 class)
Part IV: Closing Presentation

Session (Click here) Topics covered Lecture notes
1 (1/26/04) Introduction to Class
Approaches to Valuation

Syllabus for class
Project Description
Introduction to Valuation (1- 7)

2 (1/28/04)

Which valuation approach is right for you?
Introduction to Discounted Cashflow Valuation
Equity versus Firm Valuation : The Consistency Principle

Introduction to Valuation (8-21)
Packet 1 (1-10)
Weekly Challenge # 1 Reconciling firm and equity valuation Weekly Challenge
Solution
3 (2/2/04)

Ingredients in DCF valuation
Dividends versus FCFE versus FCFF valuation
The Cost of Equity
-Riskfree Rates
-Historical Risk Premiums

Packet 1 (11-28)
4 (2/4/04)

Country Risk Premiums
Company Exposure to Country Risk
Implied Equity Risk Premiums
Why regression betas don't work...
Determinants of betas

Packet 1 (29-48)
Weekly Challenge # 2 Estimating country risk premiums Weekly Challenge
Solution
5 (2/9/04) Bottom-up Betas
Cost of Debt and Synthetic Ratings
Dealing with Hybrids
Packet 1 (49-68)
6 (2/11/04)

Earnings
-Updated Earnings
- Normalizing Earnings
- Dealing with one-time and extraordinary charges
- Dealing with negative earnings
- Effective versus Marginal Tax Rates

Packet 1 (69-87)
Weekly Challenge # 3

Adjusting Operating Earnings

Weekly Challenge
Solution
7 (2/18/04)

Capital Expenditures
- Linking to growth
- Dealing with acquisitions
Defining and Estimating Working Capital
From Cashflow to firm to Cashflow to Equity
Historical Growth Rates

Packet 1 (88-109)
8 (2/23/04)

Take the quiz, check out the solution and compare your score to the distribution.

Analyst Estimates of Growth
Fundamentals and Growth
EPS Growth: Efficiency versus Sustainable growth

Packet 1 (110-126)
9 (2/25/04)

Net Income Growth vs EPS Growth
Growth in Operating Income
Working from revenues down...
Terminal Value: The tail that wags the dog?
Choosing the Right Model

Packet 1 (127-153)
Weekly Challenge # 4 Estimating fundamental growth Weekly Challenge
Solution
10 (3/1/04)

Loose Ends in Valuation
- Cash and marketable securities
- Valuing cross holdings
- Management options and warrants

Packet 1 (154-178)
11 (3/3/04) Valuation Examples
- Con Ed: Stable Growth DDM and Implied Growth
- ABN Amro: Decomposing value into growth and assets in place
- S&P 500: Is the market under or over valued?
- Nestle: Emerging Market Exposure and the Effects of New Information
Packet 1 (179-207)
Weekly Challenge # 5 Dealing with management options Weekly Challenge
Solution
12 (3/8/04) Valuing a high growth, emerging market company
Valuing distressed companies
Valuing companies with R & D expenses...
Packet 1 (208-237)
13 (3/10/04)

The Dark Side of Valuation: Valuing young companies
Amazon valuations: 2000, 2001, 2002....
Introduction to Relative Valuation

Packet 1 (238-258)
Packet 2 (1-5)
Weekly Challenge # 6 Circular Reasoning in DCF valuation Weekly Challenge
Daimler valuation
Solution
14 (3/22/04) The Four Steps in deconstructing multiples
PE Ratio
- Definition
- Description
- Determinants
- Applications
Packet 2 (6-37)
 

Mystery Project: Breaking up is hard to do
Valuing Disney in pieces
Project due: April 12 in class

Mystery Project
15 (3/24/04) PE Ratio for sectors
PE Ratio for the market
PE versus Expected Growth
PEG Ratios
Packet 2 (38-81)
Weekly Challenge # 7 Analyzing the PEGY ratio Weekly Challenge
Solution
16 (3/29/04) Relative PE Ratios
EV/FCFF Multiple
EV/EBITDA
Prict to Book Ratios
Packet 2 (82-124)
17 (3/31/04)

Take the quiz, check the solution and see how you stand on the distribution.

Price to Book Scatter Plots
Price to Sales Ratios
Relative Valuation in Young Sectors

Packet 2 (125- 153)
18 (4/5/04) Value to Sales Ratios
The Value of a Brand Name
Choosing the Right Multiple
Sector versus Market Relative Valuations
Private Company Valuation: Discount Rates
Packet 2 (154-192)
19 (4/7/04) Private Company Valuation: Cashflows
Illiquidity Discounts
The Value of Control
Voting versus Non-voting shares
Packet 2 (193-225)
Weekly Challenge # 8 Relative Valuation versus DCF valuation Weekly Challenge
Solution
20 (4/12/04) Minority Discounts
Real Options
- The Allure
- Three fundamental questions
- The Option to Delay
Packet 2 (227-229)
Packet 3 (1-30)
21 (4/14/04) Valuing a company with patents
Valuing undeveloped natural resources
The Option to Expand and caveats
The Option to Delay
Packet 3 (31-60)
Weekly Challenge # 9 Valuing Private companies Weekly Challenge
Solution
22 (4/19/04)

Take the quiz, check the solution and see how you stand on the distribution.

Value of Financial Flexibility
Value of Equity in Troubled Firms
- What makes equity an option..
- Why equity holds on to value
- The Agency Problem

Packet 3 (61-90)
23 (4/21/04) Valuing Equity in troubled firms continued
- Conglomerate mergers
- Estimating option pricing parameters
Acquisition Valuation
- The five steps in acquisition analysis
- The Value of Control
- The Value of Synergy
Packet 3 (91-129)
24 (4/26/04)

Valuing Financial Synergy
Is there synergy, and if yes, who gets the benefits?
Value Enhancement
- Versus Price Enhancement
- Value Neutral Actions

Packet 3 (130-160)
25 (4/28/04) Value Enhancement Continued
Turnaround Strategies
Short Cuts to Value Enhancement: EVA
Packet 3 (161-194)
26 (5/3/04)

EVA: What can go wrong?
Closing Presentation

Packet 3 (195-21)
Closing Presentation
  Take the final exam and check out the solution.