Web Casts: Valuation - Spring 2009

This 26-session equity valuation class will be taped starting January 26, 2009, and the lectures are accessible as live streams. You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. The quality of the video and audio leaves much to be desired but it will get better over time. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home .
Introduction to Valuation
Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation (258 pages). If you prefer two slides per page, click here. (Updated for Spring 2009 class)
Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation (196 pages) (If you prefer two slides per page, click here (Updated for Spring 2009 class)
Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement (171 pages) If you prefer two slides per page, click here (Updated for Spring 2009 class)
Part IV: Closing Presentation

This page will include the webcasts from the current class. The AV system used to record the lectures has changed and I think it is much improved. The prior semester's webcasts can be found here.

Session (Click here) Topics covered Lecture notes

1 (1/26/09)
Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Audo Podcast (downloadable) (Try it on your iPod, but print off the slides)


Introduction to Class
Approaches to Valuation

Syllabus for class
Project Description
Introduction to Valuation

2 (1/28/09)
Webcast, streamed
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
A quick test of bias
Valuation Approaches
- DCF Valuation
- Relative Valuation
- Real Options
First steps in DCF valuation

A Quick bias test
Packet 1: 1-10

Weekly challenge # 1
Reconciling firm and equity valuation Weekly challenge #1
Solution
3 (2/2/09)
Webcast, streamed
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
Consistency: Equity versus Firm
The four pillars of value
The risk free rate: Defining it and measurement issues
Equity Risk Premiums
Kennecott cashflow page
Packet 1: 11-33
4 (2/4/09)
Webcast, streamed
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
More on historical risk premiuns
Country risk premiums
Company exposure to country risk
Implied equity risk premiums

Implied premium spreadsheet

Packet 1: 34-55

Weekly Challenge # 2

Estimating country risk premiums (or)
Implied Premium versus Riskfree Rate

Country premium challenge and solution
Implied premium challenge, data and solution
5 (2/9/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
Closing thoughts on equity risk premiums
Betas
- Why regression betas stink
- Bottom up Betas
Packet 1: 56-72
6 (2/11/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
The Cost of Debt
- Ratings and Default Spreads
- The right tax rate
- Subsidized debt
Cash flows
Packer 1: 73-96

7 (2/18/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Capitalizing leases
Capitalizing R&D
One-time charges
Negative income
Tax rate
Packet 1: 97-107
Weekly Challenge # 3

Adjusting Operating Earnings

Weekly challenge
Solution
8 (2/23/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Dealing with NOLs
Capital expenditures & Working Capital
Estimating FCFE - the leverage effect
Growth
-Historical
- Analyst estiamtes

Packet 1: 108-135
9 (2/25/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the first quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class.

More on fundamental growth
Growth in equity earnings versus operating earnings
Estimating growth in money losing companies

Packet 1: 136-151
Weekly Challenge # 4 Estimating fundamental growth Weekly challenge
Solution
10 (3/2/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
Terminal value
- Constraints on growth
- Length of growth period
- Excess returns and consistentcy
Picking the right model
Packet 1: 152-172
11 (3/4/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
Loose Ends in Valuation
- Dealing with cash
- Valuing cross holdings
- Other assets?
- The cost of complexity
- Dealing with Debt
Packet 1: 173-193
Weekly Challenge # 4A Terminal Value Mechanics Weekly challenge
Solution
12 (3/9/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
Equity options (employees)
DCF valuations
- Stable growth assumptions
- Implied growth rates
- Valuing banks
Packet 1: 194-218
13 (3/11/09)
Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)
Decomposing value
Negative FCFE and equity dilution
Corporate governance and value
The Dark Side of Valuation (beginning)
Packet 1: 219-240
Weekly Challenge # 5 Dealing with management options Weekly challenge
Solution
Weekly Challenge # 6 Circular Reasoning in DCF valuation Weekly Challenge
Daimler valuation
Solution

14 (3/23/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

More on valuing growth companies
Distressed and Declining Companies
Dealing with uncertainty
Packet 1: 241-End

15 (3/25/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Relative Valuation
- What is it?
- Why is it so popular?
- Steps to using multiples well
PE Ratios

Packet 2: 1-30

16 (3/30/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the second quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class.
More on PE ratios
Packet 2: 31-45

17 (4/1/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

The value of growth & price of risk
PEG Ratios
Value multiples
EV/EBITDA
Packet 2: 36-83
Weekly Challenge # 7 Analyzing the PEGY ratio Weekly challenge
Solution

18 (4/6/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

More on EV/EBITDA
Book Value Multiples
Revenue Multiples
Packert 2: 84-124

19 (4/8/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Relative valuation of young and distressed companies
Choosing between the multiples
Private company valuation: introduction
Packet 2: 125-160
Weekly Challenge # 8 Relative Valuation versus DCF valuation Weekly challenge
Solution

20 (4/13/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Valuing private to private transactions
- Total betas
- Illiquidity
- Key person
Valuing private to public transactions
Valuing IPOs
Packet 2: 161-196

21 (4/15/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Introduction to real options
The option to delay
Patents as options
Packet 3: 1-37
Weekly Challenge # 9 Valuing Private companies Weekly challenge
Solution

22 (4/20/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the third quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class.
Natural resource options

Packet 3: 38-48

23 (4/22/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

The option to expand
The otpion to abandon
Equity in troubled firms
Packet 3: 49-97

24 (4/27/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Acquirer's Anonymous: Seven Steps to Sobriety
A Discourse or Rant on Acquisition Valuation
Packet 3: 98-130

25 (4/29/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Value Enhancment
- Versus Price Enhancement
- Pathways to value enhancement
- The expected value of control
Packet 3: 131-170

26 ( 5/4/09)

Webcast, streamed live
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Closing thoughts on valuation Closing presentation
Summaries of valuations