Capital Spending Exceeds Depreciation by a Significant Factor
for Stable Growth Period: If capital spending is 150% of depreciation
in the stable growth period, then this percentage is on the high
side. The consequence of capital expenditures being too high relative
to depreciation is that you might obtain an extremely low value.
Conversely, if capital expenditures are too low relative to depreciation
in the stable-growth phase, then an extremely high value obtains.
Typically, in the stable growth phase, capital expenditures are similar
to (or not disproportionately large relative to) depreciation.
Growth Rate:
Supernormal growth rate is lower than
stable growth rate: By definition, if you use the two stage
model, the supernormal growth rate should be larger than the growth rate
in the normal growth period. More generally, if you used a multi-stage
growth model which mimics the lifecycle of the firm, in the early years,
growth in the startup phase could be lower than in the normal stage.
Next, rapid growth exceeding stable growth would occur. As the firm
matures, the firm could be growing a little above or possibly at the S&P500.
Point: Either use the stable growth model or alternatively, reweight your
growth estimates to put a larger weight on growth components associated
with higher growth rates.
Earnings Per Share is Growing at a Much Lower Rate than Capital
Expenditures and Depreciation in Supernormal Growth Period: A few
students had EPS growing at 4% in the supernormal growth period while capex
and depreciation grew at 20%. Once again, the stable growth rate
for EPS was higher than EPS in supernormal period.
Growth Rate in Capital Expenditures during Supernormal Growth
Period should typically be greater than zero and greater than or equal
to the growth rate in depreciation: Some students had capex decreasing
(-4%) in the supernormal growth period and depreciation increasing (1.9%)
based on a 5 year historical growth rate. Remember, value is based
on expectations rather than realizations. Realizations represent
a point of departure. As a starting point, set the expected growth
rate in capex = expected growth rate in depreciation = expected growth
rate in EPS to determine the FCFE value.
Calculating Growth Rate in EBIT for use in FCFF: To
calculate expected gEBIT, E(gEBIT), this is
simply a variation of expected gEPS, E(gEPS).
Recall that to get an expected gEPS we can use a weighted
average of management's estimate of growth, historical growth, and fundamental
growth via the Dupont model. Using a modification of the Dupont formula,
Other:
Misuse of Damodaran 2FCFE and/or 3FCFE Spreadsheet:
Using the two stage or three stage FCFE model assumes that your cost of
equity is lower than your initial
growth rate and hence a supernormal growth model is necessary. When
you have two growth rates and both growth rates are lower than the
cost of equity (i.e., supernormal growth is way lower than cost of equity
rather than approximately equal to cost of equity), you really need to
set up your own spreadsheet using the general discounting model that we
discussed in class. Grow the cash flows at one growth rate over the
appropriate interval and then grow the cash flows at the second growth
rate over the remaining time period if a two stage model is used.
Discount these cash flows at the appropriate cost of equity to obtain the
equity value. By appropriate cost of equity, it's the cost of equity
associated with each growth phase. Your cost of equity could remain
constant.
Negative Earnings Per Share: Instead of using the
FCFE model, you might try valuing the entire firm using the FCFF model
and then minus out the market value of outstanding debt to obtain the value
of equity. An alternative to the FCFF model is to use normalized
or average earnings using a period in the recent past in which earnings
are healthier. A further discussion of this is found in Damodaran on
Valuation, Chapter 9: Special Cases in Valuation.
No decision/recommendation: Is your stock a buy, sell,
or hold?