Information Sources for Your Project
 
Internet/Intranet
LC Computer Lab
Bobst
Getting Started Bobst Library,
Choosing a Stock Wall Street Research Network(WSRN) , Quicken, DailyStocks, Bloomberg, Dow Jones News Retrieval, Reuters
  • Value Line
  • S&P Stock Reports
  • Moody's
    		•
    Company Overview All purpose: WSRN , Quicken

    Company News: PRNewswire, CNNfn, BusinessWire, 
     

    Information on Patents: General Information Concerning Patents and Trademarks , Patent Search (U.S. Patent Office) , Patent Server (IBM) ,
    U.S. Patent and Trademark Office ,

    U.S. Patent Sites (Trade Wave)    		 Bloomberg, Dow Jones News Retrieval, Lexis-Nexus, Reuters,
  • Value Line
  • S&P Stock Reports
  • Moody's
  • Investext (CD-Rom)
  • Disclosure (CD-Rom)
  • Infotrac (CD-Rom)
  • Predicast F&S CD-Rom)
  • Wall Street Transcript
    		•
    Industry Analysis and Management Growth Strategies Economic Data-Ted Bos, Census, U. of Michigan, Stat-USA (NYU is a subscriber) 

    Industry Reviews: Census, Hoovers, Industry Research Desk, Industry Link, ITA, Lehman Bros.,WSRN(look at industry links for your firm at lower right hand corner once you type in your ticker)

    Other: Yardeni, 

     

    		 Bloomberg, Dow Jones News Retrieval, Lexis-Nexus (LexNex.doc), Reuters,
  • Investext (CD-Rom)
  • Disclosure (CD-Rom) - Look at 10Ks of your company and its competitors
  • Predicast F&S (CD-Rom)
  • Infotrac (CD-Rom)
  • S&P Industry Surveys
  • Wall Street Transcript
  • Trade Publications e.g., Beverage World
    		•
    Ratio Analysis Stern Research Data Sets (srds) - Use Compustat Option. Altman: Use to determine the financial health of your firm. Bloomberg
  • RMA Annual Statement Studies (Robert Morris)
  • Industry Norms and Key Business Ratios (Dun & Bradstreet)
  • Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios (Troy)
  • Trade Publications. 
  • Shesnouff (banks)
  • Best Reports (Insurance)
    		•
    Absolute Valuation: DDM, FCFE, FCFF, EVA/MVA Stern Research Data Sets (srds) - Use CRSP and Compustat Options. 

    Information on Equity

  • WSRN - Access Annual Reports and 10Ks via Edgar; beta and estimated growth via QuickSource; Earnings estimates. Bloomberg (Web): access rate on Treasury bonds.

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    Information on Debt

  • Debt Ratings Definitions
  • Cost of Debt
  • Glossary of Debt Terms 
  • Insurance Ratings: AM Best

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    AOL-First Call 

    		 Bloomberg
    Relative Valuation WSRN - Look for comparable firms by selecting the Industry Comparison option. Bloomberg
    Technical Analysis AOL-You can download daily historical prices adjusted for stock splits if you are a subscriber. 

    BigStocks,(click on interactive chart option. On left hand side of screen choose the appropriate time frame, compare to, indicators, and chart style)

    QuoteYahoo (once you submit your ticker, you can download historical prices at the lower right hand corner)

    		 Bloomberg (use scanner and OCR software)

     

    Week                                Project Work To Be Completed Potential Data Sources/Software


     1*Choosing a Stock. Your stock must
    (i) be publicly listed
    (ii) have prices, dividends(preferably), and positive earnings for at least 4 out of 5 years
    (iii) have information on it on the Bloomberg machine


    3Company Overview Synopsis: Describe what your company does and its prospects for the future. Discuss what are its major current and future sources of revenue and revenue growth, and provide a breakdown of revenue sources by geographic region, major product type, etc. Provide a description of the major products and divisions of your firm. Also, discuss current news events about the company and what these events portend in terms of future company performance e.g. future revenues and expenses.


    4Industry Analysis and Management Strategies: Discuss the current state and the future prospects of the industry you have chosen. Also discuss how these industry trends impact on your stock’s current/future performance. Present an analysis ala Michael Porter of the basic competitive forces in your industry and your company’s strategies to deal with these forces. Also perform an analysis of your company’s management team e.g. its skill and competence. Discuss company risks/uncertainties as well as special situations. The point of industry/management analysis is to determine the sustainability of current growth and prospects for future growth of your firm.

    5Fundamental Analysis - Ratio Analysis: Discuss what your company’s ratios suggest about the health of your firm relative to the industry, relative to the market as proxied by the S&P500, your company’s primary competitors, as well as the firm’s past performance. Your discussion should focus on firm performance with respect to internal liquidity, operating performance, risk analysis, growth analysis, and external liquidity. Link problems which the ratio analysis suggests to balance sheet and income statement items and also major news events. Also, discuss what the implications of your ratio analysis are with respect to future management performance and long term price trends.

     7Fundamental Analysis - Dividend Discount, Free Cash Flow to Equity, EVA/MVA Models: Value your company using the constant growth model (or supergrowth model if applicable) in addition to the free cash flow to equity model. Do some simple sensitivity analysis on the growth rate and discount rate. In addition to this, perform an EVA/MVA analysis on your company and compare your company relative to other Fortune 500 companies in your industry. Address questions at the end of this section in the finance project handbook.

    Sources: Bloomberg, Compustat and CRSP on srds, ValueLine, First Call on America Online, Dow Jones News Retrieval, www.wsrn.com


     8Fundamental Analysis - Relative Valuation Models:

    Perform a relative valuation analysis using firms that are "comparable" to your subject firm and using variables that are appropriate to your particular industry to adjust the industry P/E to arrive at the justified P/E for your stock and stocks of your comparables. Address questions at the end of this section in the finance project handbook.


     10Technical Analysis: Determine whether your stock is overvalued, undervalued, or correctly priced using the moving average system, the relative strength technique, and the earnings surprise model.

    Do some simple sensitivity analysis on the number of days to use in the short term/long term moving averages. Construct a matrix showing the profit from varying the number of days in the short/long term series. Also perform some simple sensitivity analysis on the significance level to use as the appropriate Z score in the earnings surprise model e.g. 90%, 95%, etc. Construct a matrix showing the profit from varying the Z-score (significance level).

    Calculate your profit margin if you had relied on each of these alternative systems. In addition to this, calculate profits if you had used a buy and hold strategy. Address the issues in the technical analysis handout.


    13 Project is Due (Pau Hana)