International Macroeconomic Policy:
Theory and Evidence from
  Recent Financial Crises

Fall 2019

 (*) denotes a required reading


I. 1. Global Macroeconomic Performance After the Global Financial Crisis

Current Economic Conditions in the Global Economy and Policy Issues; Upside and Downside Risks:

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09: Causes and Post Mortem; Productivity Slowdown, Global Debt Threats, Secular Stagnation, Backlash Against Globalization, Cartelization and the New Global Geopolitical Dis-Order

Other Background Readings and Materials (not required readings):


I. 2. Current Account, External Debt and Financial Crises: Emerging Market Economies and Advanced Economies


I. 3. International Indicators: Exchange Rates and Interest Parity Conditions


II. 1. Exchange Rates in the Short-Run and Long Run


II. 2. Money, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates


II. 3. Fixed Exchange Rates, the Dynamics of Currency Crises and Crisis Contagion


II. 4. Financial crises and their resolution in EM and DM: The Bail-in vs. Bailout Debate, Unconventional Monetary Policies (ZIRP, QE, CE, FG), Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Risk




III. 1 The Right Exchange Rate Regime for Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies:

The Inconsistent Trinity Principle
Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which is Best?

Currency Boards (Hong Kong, Bulgaria)
Dollarization (Panama, Ecuador, El Salvador)
Monetary Unions (European Monetary Union)
A Global Gurrency? Or a Gold Standard?


III. 2. Current Global Macro and Financial Issues:

Global Economy: Return to Sustained Growth in Developed Markets or a Slowdown Ahead? Is the Slowdown of Emerging Markets Cyclical or Structural? Are Some of Them at Risk of Financial Crises?
US Economy: Return to High Potential Growth or Cyclical Expansion? Is Potential Growth Lower? The Debate on Secular Stagnation
Fed and Other Central Banks’ Policies and Implications for the Bond and Stock Market. Unconventional Monetary Policies in Developed Markets: Zero Policy Rates, QE, Credit Easing (CE) and Forward Guidance. Should We Worry About Inflation or Deflation?
Eurozone and Future the European Monetary Union: Will It Survive? The Return of Sovereign Risk in Advanced Economies.
Japan's economic prospects: Will Abenomics Work or Fail?
China: Soft or Hard or Bumpy Landing? Can China Rebalance in Time?
Prospects and Risks for Emerging Market Economies in the Short and Long Run
Geo-Political Risks and Oil Prices; Why Have Markets So Far Ignored Rising Geo-Political Risks? What are the Prospects for Oil Prices?
Prospects for Major Currencies: Euro, Dollar, Yen, RMB and Other Currencies

III.3. Open Issues in the International Financial System

The 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath: Have We Fixed the System? Will Crises Occur Again and When?
Reform of the Regime of Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System in a World of Financial Globalization

Is there a Risk of a Populist Backlash Against Globalization? Technology, AI, Inequality and the Future of Work
Are We in a G-20 or a G-0 World? Geo-Political Risks in the Global Economy
Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy: The Role of Macro-Prudential Supervision Versus Policy Rates In Addressing Financial Stability
Systemic Risk and Financial Crises: Asset and Credit Booms and Busts. Housing Bubbles and Busts: Still Ongoing and Where? Blockchain and Crypto-Currencies: A Bubble or the Future of Money?
Capital Mobility, Hot Money and Capital Controls: Return to Restrictions on Capital Flows and FDI?

The Emergence of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in the Global Economy: Over-Hyped or Not? “Next Eleven”?


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