International Macroeconomic Policy:
Theory and Evidence from
  Recent Financial Crises

ECON-GB2380
Fall 2014

(*) denotes a required reading

I. AN OVERVIEW OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

I. 1. Global Macroeconomic Performance After the Global Financial Crisis

Current Economic Conditions in the Global Economy:

 

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09; Causes and Current Post Mortem Six Years After the Collapse of Lehman:


Other Background Readings and Materials (not required readings):

 

I. 2. Current Account, External Debt and Financial Crises: Emerging Market Economies and Advanced Economies


Other Background Readings and Materials (not required readings):

 

I. 3. International Indicators: Exchange Rates and Interest Parity Conditions


II. EXCHANGE RATES AND FINANCIAL CRISES

II. 1. Exchange Rates in the Short-Run and Long Run

 

II. 2. Money, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

 

II. 3. Fixed Exchange Rates, the Dynamics of Currency Crises and Crisis Contagion

 

 

II. 4. Financial crises and their resolution in EM and DM: The Bail-in vs. Bailout Debate, Unconventional Monetary Policies (ZIRP, QE, CE, FG), Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Risk



 

III. CURENT POLICY ISSUES

 

III. 1 The Right Exchange Rate Regime for Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies:

The Inconsistent Trinity Principle
Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which is Best?

Currency Boards (Hong Kong, Bulgaria)
Dollarization (Panama, Ecuador, El Salvador)
Monetary Unions (European Monetary Union)
A Global Gurrency?
Or a Gold Standard?

 

III. 2. Current Global Macro and Financial Issues:

Global Economy: Return to Sustained Growth in Developed Markets or Still an Anemic Recovery Given Deleveraging? Is the Slowdown of Emerging Markets Cyclical or Structural? Are Some of Them at Risk of Crisis?
US Economy: Return to Potential Growth or Still Anemic Recovery? Is Potential Growth Lower? The Debate on Secular Stagnation
What Will the Fed do (Exit from QE and from Zero Policy Rates) and Implications for the Bond and Stock Market. Unconventional Monetary Policies in Developed Markets: Zero Policy Rates, QE, Credit Easing (CE) and Forward Guidance. Should We Worry About Inflation or Deflation?
Eurozone Crisis and Future the European Monetary Union: Will It Recover and Survive? The Return of Sovereign Risk in Advanced Economies
Japan's economic prospects: Will Abenomics Work or Fail?
China: Soft or Hard Landing? Can China Rebalance in Time?
Prospects and Risks for Emerging Market Economies in the Short and Long Run
Geo-Political Risks and Oil Prices; Why Have Markets Ignored Rising Geo-Political Risks?
Prospects for Major Currencies: Euro, Dollar, Yen and Other Currencies

 

III.3. Open Issues in the International Financial System

The 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath: Have We Fixed the System? Will Crises Occur Again?
Reform of the Regime of Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System in a World of Financial Globalization

Are We in a G-20 or a G-0 World? Is there a Risk of a Backlash Against Globalization?
Housing Bubbles and Busts: Still Ongoing and Where?
Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy: The Role of Macro-Prudential Supervision Versus Policy Rates In Addressing Financial Stability
Systemic Risk and Financial Crises: Asset and Credit Booms and Busts
Capital Mobility, Hot Money and Capital Controls: Return to Restrictions on Capital Flows?

The Emergence of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) in the Global Economy: Over-Hyped or Not?
Asset/Financial Protectionism and Risks of Restrictions to Foreign Direct Investment

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