title small bio t4 t9
t1 t5 t10
t3 t6 t11
t2 t8  

 

 

 

Web Casts: Valuation - Spring 2012

This 26-session equity valuation class will be taped starting January 30, 2012, and the lectures are accessible as live streams. You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. The quality of the video and audio leaves much to be desired but it will get better over time. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page .
Introduction to Valuation
Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation (258 pages). If you prefer two slides per page, click here. (Updated for Spring 2012 class)
Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation (202 pages) (If you prefer two slides per page, click here (Updated for Spring 2012 class)
Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement (174 pages) If you prefer two slides per page, click here(Updated for Spring 2012 class)
Part IV: Closing Presentation

This page will include the webcasts from the current class. The webcasts can be accessed in one of three ways:
Streaming video (The file will be streamed to your computer. This will work only if you have a good internet connection, but should be of the best quality)
Video podcast (The .m4v file will be downloaded to your computer and you can watch the video using Quicktime or video software or on your iPod)
Audio podcast (The .mp3 file will be downloaded as an audio file and can be played on any audio player)

The AV system used to record the lectures has changed and I think it is much improved. The prior semester's webcasts can be found here.
If you want to join the Coursekit page for this class (or just lurk), here is the link.
The emails related to this class can be accessed here.

Session (Click here) Topics covered Lecture notes

1 (1/30/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Introduction to Class

Syllabus for class
Project Description
Introduction to Valuation (pg 1-4)

2 (2/1/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Valuation bias: A test and my solutions Introduction to Valuation (pg 5-End)
Packet 1: 1-8
Valuation: How much detail?
Valuation approaches
DCF: Valuation choices
Weekly challenge # 1
Reconciling firm and equity valuation Weekly challenge #1
Solution

3 (2/6/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Cash flow consistency: A test (Congoleum)

CDS Spreads
Sovereign Default Spreads
Packet 1: 9-33

Cash flow consistency
Discount Rates
- How much do they matter?
- Cost of equity basics
- Riskfree Rate

4 (2/8/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Risk Premiums: A test Packet 1: 34-49
Equity risk premiums
- Historical risk premiums and their limitations
- Country risk premiums
- Estimating company risk exposure to country risk
Weekly Challenge # 2 Country risk and risk premiums Weekly challenge # 2
Solution

5 (2/13/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Implied Equity Risk Premiums: A test Packet 1: 50-70
Implied equity risk premiums
Betas
- The perils of regression betas
- Alternatives to beta
- Bottom up beta

6 (2/15/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Betas and cost of capital: A test Packet 1: 70-90
Bottom up Betas
Cost of equity: The big picture
Cost of debt
Cost of capital
Weekly Challenge # 2a

Implied Premium versus Riskfree Rate

Implied premium challenge, data and solution

7 (2/22/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Cash flows: A test

Tax rate by country and industry

Packet 1: 91-110

Cash flows
- Steps in assessing cash flows
- Accounting Earnings
- Taxes
Weekly Challenge # 3

Adjusting Operating Earnings

Weekly challenge
Solution & Synthetic rating

8 (2/27/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Growth rates I: A test Packet 1: 111-137
More on cash flows
- Net Cap Ex
- Change in working capital
- Cash flows to equity
Growth rates
- Historical growth rates
- Analyst estimates of growth

9 (2/29/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the first quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class. Packet 1: 138-156
Fundamental growth rates
- The drivers of growth
- New Investment (sustainable) growth
- Efficiency growth
Weekly Challenge # 4

Estimating fundamental growth

Weekly challenge
Solution

10 (3/5/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Terminal Value: A test Packet 1: 156-177
Closing thoughts on growth
Terminal value
Choosing the right model
Loose ends in Valuation

11 (3/7/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Loose Ends: A test Packet 1: 178-205
Valuing cross holdings & complexity
Dealing with debt
Management options
Weekly Challenge # 5 Terminal Value Weekly challenge
Solution

12 (3/19/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

DCF valuation: A test Packet 1: 206-228
Final thoughts on management options
Dividend discount model valuation
Valuing financial service companies
Valuing the S&P 500

13 (3/21/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

DCF Valuation II: A test Packet 1: 229-247
Valuing poor corporate governance
The effect of R&D on value
Valuing young, growth companies
Valuing declining and distressed companies
Weekly Challenge # 6 Circular Reasoning in DCF valuation Weekly Challenge
Daimler valuation
Solution

14 (3/26/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Relative valuation I: A test Packet 1: 248-End
Packet 2: 1-7
Dealing with Distress in Valuation
Dealing with Uncertainty in Valuation
Relative Valuation: Introduction

15 (3/28/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Relative valuation II: A test Packet 2: 8-35

Deconstructing multiples
The PE ratio: Definition, Description and Analysis
PE Ratio tests
- Comparing PE across markets
- Comparing PE across time
- Comparing PE across companies

16 (4/2/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the second quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class. Packet 2: 36-56
PE ratio comparisons across companies
PE market regression
Comparing PE to expected growth rate
The basics of PEG ratios

17 (4/4/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Relative Valuation III: A test Packet 2: 57-95
PEG ratios: Determinants
EV multiples
EV/EBITDA

18 (4/9/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Relative Valuation III: A test Packet 2: 96-145
PBV ratios
Revenue Multiples
Forward Multiples
Value of a Brand Name

19 (4/11/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Private Company Valuation: A test Packet 2: 146-178
Choosing a multiple
Relative versus DCF valuation
Private company valuation
- The importance of motive
- Discount rates, cash flows and value
Weekly Challenge # 8 Relative Valuation versus DCF valuation Weekly challenge
Solution

20 (4/16/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Private Company Valuation II: A test Packet 2: 173-End
Packet 3: 1-13
Private company valuation
- Dealing with illiquidity
- The key person discount
- Illiquidity
- IPO valuation
Real Options: Introduction

21 (4/18/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Real Options 1: A test Packet 3: 14-45
Option Pricing Basics
The option to delay
- A patent as an option
- Implications

22 (4/23/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Take the third quiz and check out the solution as well as the distribution of grades for the class. Packet 3: 46-68
Valuing a natural resource company
The value of the option to expand
Valuing the option to abandon
Valuing financial flexibility

23 (4/25/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Real Options 2: A test Packet 3: 69-99
Valuing equity as an option
- Basis
- Implications

24 (4/30/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Acquisitions: A test Packet 3: 100-133
Acquistion Valuation
- A short and sorry history
- Acquisition errors
- Valuing Synergy

25 (5/2/12)

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Value Enhancement: A test Packet 3: 134-155
Value enhancement
- Versus Price Enhancements
- Mechanisms
- The Expected Value of Control

26 (5/7/12)
Audio missing on these lectures...

Webcast, streamed (need a good internet connection)
Video podcast (downloadable)
Audio Podcast (downloadable)

Dante meets DCF: Ten common valuation errors
Closing thoughts
Closing Presentation
Spreadsheet with summaries
The Final Exam Take the final and check out the solution as well as the distribution of scores for the final.