Consumption (from NIPA accounts)

Importance: ***

Definition: Consumption spending represents about 56% of the GDP and is divided into three categories: durable goods (items expected to last more than three years), nondurable goods (food and clothing), and services.

Related Indicators: A related concept is the one of the Personal Saving Rate, the fraction of personal income that is not consumed. Other related concepts are those of Personal Consumption Expenditures  and Retail Sales that are published monthly rather than quarterly.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,. NIPA dataset.

Frequency: Quarterly, revised monthly. The consumption for a given quarter is released together with the GDP figures  in the first month following a quarter as the "advance estimate". The "preliminary estimate" is published in the second month, followed by the "revised" estimate in the third month.

Availability: Three to four weeks following the reported quarter
 
Direction: Procyclical

Timing:  Coincident indicator of the business cycle

Volatility: Moderate

Likely Impact on Financial Markets:

Ability to affect markets:  moderate unless there is a large unexpected change.
 
Analysis of the indicator:
Consumption spending represents about 65% of the GDP and is the largest component of aggregate demand. Therefore, consumption behavior is crucial to the movements of the business cycle. Consumption is divided into three categories: durable goods (items expected to last more than three years), nondurable goods (food and clothing), and services.

WEB Links

Graphs of the latest consumption and savings data from The Economic Statistics Briefing Room of the White House

A table with the most recent Consumption and GDP data  from the BEA

The latest GDP report from BEA includes an analysis of the consumption trends in the latest quarter

You can chart consumption and other NIPA data from the NIPA VISUALIZATION PAGE

You can see Consumption charts with theEconomic Chart Dispenser

You can create customized consumption charts with the Economic Chart Maker  Tip: type "CONSUMPTION" in the Label section of the form and choose the transformation of the data you are interested in.

An analysis of the 1997-Q-3 GDP report from First Union

An Analysis of the 1997-Q3 GDP report from Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach
 
An Analysis of the 1997-Q2 GDP report from Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach