Weekly Puzzle #10: Buybacks returns - Good, Bad or Neutral News?
What is it?
Stock buybacks have increasingly become the vehicle for companies to return cash to shareholders, supplanting dividends, the classic 20th century cash return mechanism. That said, buybacks do have up and down years; 2023 was a slow year for buybacks, but they have picked up again in 2024. There has also been a heated debate among investors, corporate executives and economists as to whether buybacks are good or bad for companies. I think that the buybacks are bad crowd is confused about in their arguments, and seem to operate on the presumption that reinvesting money is always better than returning cash for the greater good. At the same time, the buybacks are good crowd (which includes a lot of bankers and investors) has a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives value. I do think that buybackseet a need that has developed among companies for flexibility, and that much of the debate is overwrought. You can find my arguments on buybacks in this post:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2014/09/stock-buybacks-they-are-big-they-are.html
As for the effects of buybacks on stock prices, I try to work through the mechanics in this mor recent post:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/03/data-update-7-for-2023-dividends.html