The following regressions were run across four groupings. The first and most comprehensive set of regressions were run across all traded companies in the United States. The second set of regressions were run across all traded companies in Western Europe and the UK. The third set of regressions were run across companies in emerging markets in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. The final set of regressions were run across just Japanese companies.

1. United States
2. Europe
3. Emerging Markets
4. Japan

I have run the regressions with and without the intercept for most of the variables. Where the intercept is positive, I have reported on that regression. Where the intercept is negative, I have reported the regression without the intercept. The R squared reported are from the regressions with intercepts (since the R squared are artificially high when you remove the intercept).

All of the percentages are entered as absolute values (I am sorry but I have gone back and forth with this... In this iteration, all numbers are absolute values). Thus, a firm with an expected growth rate of 30%, a payout ratio of 10% and a beta of 1.25 can be expected to have a PE of:
PE = 2.9127 (30) + .3774 (10) - 21.62 (1.25) = 64.13

The variables used in the regressions are listed below.

• g = Expected growth in earnings over the next 5 years
• Relative Growth = Expected growth in earnings/ Average growth rate for market
• g(rev) = Expected growth rate in revenues over the next 5 years (If you do not have this, use the expected growth rate in EPS)
• PE = Price/ Current EPS
• Relative PE = Current PE for company/ Average for the market
• PBV = Market value of equity/ Book value of equity
• PS = Market value of equity / Revenues in most recent financial year
• Enterprise Value = Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt - Cash and Marketable Securities
• Payout = DPS/EPS: from most recent year; if dividends are postive and earnings are negative, it is set to 100%.
• Relative Payout = Payout/ Average payout ratio for market
• Debt/Equity = Book Value of Debt/ Market value of Equity
• Debt/Capital = Book Value of Debt / (Book value of Debt + Market value of Equity)
• Beta = Betas based upon 3 years of data (You can use alternate periods or intervals)
• Net Margin = Net Income / Sales
• After-tax Operating Margin = EBIT (1-tax rate) /Sales
• Pre-tax Operating Margin = EBIT/ Sales
• Tax Rate = Effective tax rate in most recent year
• ROE = Net Income / BV of Equity
• ROC + EBIT (1-t)/ (BV of Debt + BV of Equity)
• Reinvestment Rate = (Cap ex - Depreciation + Chg in non-cash WC)/ EBIT (1 - tax rate)
• Std dev in Stock Prices = Standard deviation in stock prices over last 5 years. You can use alternate intervals.

 

United States