Historical
Implied Equity Risk PremiumsData Used: Multiple data services
Data: Historical Implied Equity Risk Premiums for the US (See my paper on equity risk premiums for details)
Date: January 2025
Download as an excel file instead: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/histimpl.xls
Year |
Earnings Yield |
Dividend Yield |
S&P 500 | Smoothed Growth |
Implied ERP (FCFE) |
Implied Premium (FCFE with sustainable Payout) |
| 1960 | 5.34% | 3.41% | 58.11 | 2.45% | ||
| 1961 | 4.71% | 2.85% | 71.55 | 2.41% | 2.92% | |
| 1962 | 5.81% | 3.40% | 63.1 | 4.05% | 3.56% | |
| 1963 | 5.51% | 3.13% | 75.02 | 4.96% | 3.38% | |
| 1964 | 5.62% | 3.05% | 84.75 | 5.13% | 3.31% | |
| 1965 | 5.73% | 3.06% | 92.43 | 5.46% | 3.32% | |
| 1966 | 6.74% | 3.59% | 80.33 | 4.19% | 3.68% | |
| 1967 | 5.66% | 3.09% | 96.47 | 5.25% | 3.20% | |
| 1968 | 5.51% | 2.93% | 103.86 | 5.32% | 3.00% | |
| 1969 | 6.63% | 3.52% | 92.06 | 7.55% | 3.74% | |
| 1970 | 5.98% | 3.46% | 92.15 | 4.78% | 3.41% | |
| 1971 | 5.46% | 3.10% | 102.09 | 4.57% | 3.09% | |
| 1972 | 5.23% | 2.70% | 118.05 | 5.21% | 2.72% | |
| 1973 | 8.16% | 3.70% | 97.55 | 8.30% | 4.30% | |
| 1974 | 13.64% | 5.43% | 68.56 | 6.42% | 5.59% | |
| 1975 | 8.55% | 4.14% | 90.19 | 5.99% | 4.13% | |
| 1976 | 9.07% | 3.93% | 107.46 | 8.19% | 4.55% | |
| 1977 | 11.43% | 5.11% | 95.1 | 9.52% | 5.92% | |
| 1978 | 12.11% | 5.39% | 96.11 | 8.48% | 5.72% | |
| 1979 | 13.48% | 5.53% | 107.94 | 11.70% | 6.45% | |
| 1980 | 11.04% | 4.74% | 135.76 | 11.01% | 5.03% | |
| 1981 | 12.39% | 5.57% | 122.55 | 11.42% | 5.73% | |
| 1982 | 9.83% | 4.93% | 140.64 | 7.96% | 4.90% | |
| 1983 | 8.06% | 4.32% | 164.93 | 9.09% | 4.31% | |
| 1984 | 10.07% | 4.68% | 167.24 | 11.02% | 5.11% | |
| 1985 | 7.42% | 3.88% | 211.28 | 7.89% | 3.84% | |
| 1986 | 5.96% | 3.38% | 242.17 | 5.54% | 3.58% | |
| 1987 | 6.49% | 3.71% | 247.08 | 9.66% | 3.99% | |
| 1988 | 8.20% | 3.68% | 277.72 | 9.76% | 3.77% | |
| 1989 | 6.80% | 3.32% | 353.4 | 9.58% | 3.51% | |
| 1990 | 6.58% | 3.74% | 330.22 | 7.39% | 3.89% | |
| 1991 | 4.58% | 3.11% | 417.09 | 6.34% | 3.48% | |
| 1992 | 4.16% | 2.90% | 435.71 | 4.67% | 3.55% | |
| 1993 | 4.25% | 2.72% | 466.45 | 4.73% | 3.17% | |
| 1994 | 5.89% | 2.91% | 459.27 | 7.23% | 3.55% | |
| 1995 | 5.74% | 2.30% | 615.93 | 5.65% | 3.29% | |
| 1996 | 4.83% | 2.01% | 740.74 | 6.13% | 3.20% | |
| 1997 | 4.08% | 1.60% | 970.43 | 5.45% | 2.73% | |
| 1998 | 3.11% | 1.32% | 1229.23 | 4.60% | 2.26% | |
| 1999 | 3.07% | 1.14% | 1469.25 | 5.75% | 2.05% | |
| 2000 | 3.94% | 1.23% | 1320.28 | 3.71% | 2.87% | |
| 2001 | 3.85% | 1.37% | 1148.09 | 3.56% | 3.62% | 2.91% |
| 2002 | 5.23% | 1.83% | 879.82 | 3.57% | 4.10% | 4.73% |
| 2003 | 4.87% | 1.61% | 1111.91 | 5.35% | 3.69% | 4.74% |
| 2004 | 5.58% | 1.60% | 1211.92 | 4.90% | 3.65% | 4.86% |
| 2005 | 5.47% | 1.79% | 1248.29 | 6.16% | 4.08% | 5.22% |
| 2006 | 6.18% | 1.77% | 1418.3 | 5.93% | 4.16% | 6.12% |
| 2007 | 5.62% | 1.89% | 1468.36 | 5.03% | 4.37% | 4.59% |
| 2008 | 7.24% | 3.11% | 903.25 | 2.11% | 6.43% | 6.92% |
| 2009 | 5.35% | 2.00% | 1115.10 | 0.28% | 4.36% | 4.64% |
| 2010 | 6.65% | 1.84% | 1257.64 | 3.33% | 5.20% | 6.09% |
| 2011 | 7.72% | 2.07% | 1257.60 | 2.75% | 6.01% | 8.34% |
| 2012 | 7.18% | 2.13% | 1426.19 | 2.93% | 5.78% | 7.30% |
| 2013 | 5.81% | 1.96% | 1848.36 | 5.01% | 4.96% | 4.99% |
| 2014 | 5.49% | 1.92% | 2058.90 | 2.77% | 5.78% | 5.48% |
| 2015 | 5.20% | 2.11% | 2043.94 | 2.96% | 6.12% | 5.16% |
| 2016 | 4.86% | 2.01% | 2238.83 | 2.64% | 5.69% | 4.50% |
| 2017 | 4.67% | 1.86% | 2673.61 | 3.22% | 5.08% | 4.75% |
| 2018 | 5.92% | 2.14% | 2506.85 | 3.24% | 5.96% | 5.55% |
| 2019 | 5.03% | 1.82% | 3230.78 | 2.57% | 5.20% | 5.06% |
| 2020 | 3.72% | 1.51% | 3756.07 | 0.74% | 4.72% | 4.94% |
| 2021 | 4.33% | 1.24% | 4766.18 | 1.71% | 4.24% | 4.90% |
| 2022 | 5.72% | 1.78% | 3839.50 | 5.59% | 5.94% | 5.11% |
| 2023 | 4.64% | 1.47% | 4769.83 | 3.68% | 4.60% | 4.57% |
| 2024 | 4.14% | 1.25% | 5881.63 | 4.61% | 4.33% | 4.00% |
Update: Januaary 2025