Chapter 11: A Framework for Analyzing Dividend Policy
Problem 1.
Current |
Projected |
|
EBITDA |
1200 |
1350 |
Less Depreciation |
200 |
250 |
EBIT |
1000 |
1100 |
Less Interest Expenses |
200 |
200 |
EBT |
800 |
900 |
Less Taxes |
320 |
360 |
Net Income |
480 |
540 |
Free Cash Flow Computation |
||
EBIT |
1000 |
1100 |
Less Interest |
200 |
200 |
Less Taxes |
320 |
360 |
Less (Cap. Exp.- Depr.) x (1- proportion financed by debt) |
210 |
168 |
Less (Change in Working Cap.) x(1- prop. financed by debt) |
35 |
35 |
Free Cash Flow to equity |
235 |
337 |
Project |
Investment |
Beta |
IRR (Using Cash flows to equity) |
Reqd. return to equity |
|
A |
$190m. |
0.6 |
12.00% |
11.80% |
accept |
B |
$200m. |
0.8 |
12.00% |
12.90% |
reject |
C |
$200m. |
1 |
14.50% |
14.00% |
accept |
D |
$200m. |
1.2 |
15.00% |
15.10% |
reject |
E |
$100m. |
1.5 |
20.00% |
16.75% |
accept |
Projects C, D and E are NPV>0 projects according to this yardstick
The total capital expenditure needs for next year are: 200 + 100 + 190 = 490 m.
d. The maximum amount available is 337m.
e. We are told that the investment opportunities for the firm are changing. It is unclear exactly what this means. However, if this implies uncertainty, the firm might not want to pay out 100% of its free cash flow to equity.
f. Cash balance next year = |
Cash balance this year |
100 |
|||
Plus Free Cash flow to equity |
337 |
||||
Less Dividends next year |
125 |
||||
= |
312 |
Problem 2.
a.
Change in FCFE = |
||
Reduction in prod. Costs |
20000 |
|
plus reduction in inventory |
15000 |
|
Plus addnl depreciation |
2400 |
|
less capital expenditures |
12000 |
|
less addnl taxes |
13040 |
(tax rate)x(cost reductions-depreciation) |
= |
12360 |
b. The amount of depreciation will decrease over time because we are using (accelerated) MACRS depreciation. The inventory reduction will contribute to cash flow only in the first year since there will not be any incremental reductions in inventory after this year.
Problem 3.
a. No, because there would be double taxation, i.e. both at the corporate level and at the personal level.
b. In that case, it might be preferable to increase dividends now. The alternative would be to either take a large capital gain when the business would be sold, or a large dividend just before the business is sold. Hence, unless there are other capital losses that can be offset only by capital gains, it would be preferable to take larger dividends now.
Problem 4.
Project |
Investment Requirement |
After-tax return on capital |
A |
15 |
27% |
B |
10 |
20% |
C |
25 |
16% |
D |
20 |
14% |
E |
30 |
12% |
The afer-tax cost of debt = 12%(1-0.5) = 6%
The cost of equity = .08 + 1.25(0.055) = 14.875%
The market value of debt = $500m.
The market value of equity = 15(100) = $1500 m.
Hence, the WACC = (500/2000)(6%) + (1500/2000)(14.875%) = 12.656%
Assuming that the projects are as risky as the firm, all of them except E have NPV > 0. Hence, capital needed for investment = $70m. However, 25% of this will come from debt issues. Hence free cash flow to equity = 100 - (0.75)(70) = $47.5m.
a., b. Since the company has an extra $47.5m., it should return that amount to shareholders. However, the firm should also look at estimates of future investment needs and future cash flows.
Problem 5.
Project |
Initial Investment |
Beta |
IRR (to equity investors) |
Reqd. rate of return |
|
A |
$500 |
2 |
21% |
20% |
accept |
B |
$600 |
1.5 |
20% |
17% |
accept |
C |
$500 |
1 |
12% |
15% |
reject |
Free Cash flow to equity = |
Net Income |
1000 |
Less (1-0.2)(Cap. Exp. - Depreciation) |
480 |
|
Less (1-0.2)(Change in WC) |
80 |
|
= |
440 |
Note: Change in Working capital is computed as 5000(0.08).
Hence it can return a maximum of $440 to shareholders
Problem 6.
The weighted average cost of capital =
Initial Investment |
EBIT |
Annual Depr. |
Lifetime |
Salvage |
Cash flow per yr. |
NPV |
10 |
1 |
0.5 |
5 |
2.5 |
1.1 |
-4.97358 |
40 |
5 |
1 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
-16.7809 |
50 |
5 |
1 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
-26.7809 |
a. Since all projects have NPV < 0, none of them should be accepted.
b. The firm has free cash flow to equity equal to Net Income + (1-d )(Capital expenditures - Depreciation) = 90 + 8 = $98m. This is the maximum that it can pay out in dividends. This assumes that some of the depreciation is used to pay back debt. Alternatively, I would add back the entire depreciation to the net income to get $ 100 million as FCFE.
Problem 7.
Current |
Next year |
in 2 yrs |
in 3 yrs |
|
EBIT |
80 |
72 |
64.8 |
58.32 |
Depreciation |
70 |
63 |
56.7 |
51.03 |
Working Capital |
70 |
63 |
56.7 |
51.03 |
Change in WC |
-7 |
-6.3 |
-5.67 |
|
Net Income |
48 |
43.2 |
38.88 |
34.992 |
Dividends |
24 |
21.6 |
19.44 |
17.496 |
Increase in Cash |
91.6 |
82.44 |
74.196 |
If these funds are invested at 10%, the size of the war chest will be 91.6(1.1)2 + 82.44(1.1) + 74.20 = $275.72m.
Problem 8. The strategy described may or may not be optimal. A disadvantage is that a large amount of cash is being accumulated. If there are no desirable projects in the telecommunications industry, these resources may be misused by management. On the other hand, there may be strategic advantages in acquiring a large target in three years. For that purpose, it may be necessary to have high flexibility in the form of cash.
Problem 9.
Current |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|||
Net Income |
$ 100.00 |
$ 110.00 |
$ 121.00 |
$ 133.10 |
||
+ Deprec'n |
$ 50.00 |
$ 54.00 |
$ 58.32 |
$ 62.99 |
||
- Cap Ex |
$ 60.00 |
$ 60.00 |
$ 60.00 |
$ 60.00 |
||
- Chg in WC |
$ 10.00 |
$ 10.00 |
$ 10.00 |
$ 10.00 |
||
= FCFE |
$ 80.00 |
$ 94.00 |
$ 109.32 |
$ 126.09 |
||
Dividends Paid |
$ 66.00 |
$ 72.60 |
$ 79.86 |
|||
Cash Balance |
$ 50.00 |
$ 78.00 |
$ 114.72 |
$ 160.95 |
Total cash at the end of three years = $ 160.95 million
Problem 10.
Project |
Equity Investment |
CF to Equity |
Return to Equity |
Beta |
Cost of Equity |
A |
100000 |
12500 |
12.50% |
1 |
11.75% |
B |
100000 |
14000 |
14.00% |
1.5 |
14.50% |
C |
50000 |
8000 |
16.00% |
1.8 |
16.15% |
D |
50000 |
12000 |
24.00% |
2 |
17.25% |
I am assuming that the cash flow to equity divided by the equity investment to get the return on equity. Take projects A and D. The capital expenditures will be $ 150,000.
Net Income next year = (Gross Profit - Interest - Depreciation) (1-tax rate) = ($1,000,000(1.1)(1-0.4)-100,000-100,000)(1-0.4) = $276,000.
a. FCFE = = Net Income - (Net Cap. Expenditures)(1-d ) - D WC(1-d ) = $276,000 - (150,000-100,000)(1-0.4) - (1,000,000-500,0000)(0.10)(1-0.4) = $216,000. This is the amount that the company can afford to pay out in dividends.
b. If the company actually pays out $1 per share, or $100,000 next year, it will have $150,000 + 216,000 - 100,000 = $266,000 at the end of next year.
Problem 11.
a. The firm has net positive financing needs, since its net income is less than projected net capital expenditures. Hence it cannot afford to pay any dividends; as it is, it must raise additional equity capital.
b.
Current |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
Net Income |
$ 10.00 |
$ 14.00 |
$ 19.60 |
$ 27.44 |
$ 38.42 |
- (Cap Ex-Depr) |
$ 20.00 |
$ 22.00 |
$ 24.20 |
$ 26.62 |
$ 29.28 |
It will be 4 years before dividends can be paid.
Problem 12.
Year |
Net Income |
Cap. Exp. |
Depr. |
Noncash Working Capital |
Change in Noncash WC |
Dividends |
FCFE |
1991 |
240 |
314 |
307 |
35 |
25 |
70 |
220.8 |
1992 |
282 |
466 |
295 |
-110 |
-145 |
80 |
266.4 |
1993 |
320 |
566 |
284 |
215 |
325 |
95 |
-44.2 |
1994 |
375 |
490 |
278 |
175 |
-40 |
110 |
271.8 |
1995 |
441 |
494 |
293 |
250 |
75 |
124 |
275.4 |
a. Conrail could have paid dividends each year equal to its FCFE.
b. The average accounting return on equity that Conrail is earning = 13.5%, compared to a required rate of return = 0.07 + 1.25(0.125-0.07) = 13.875. Hence Conrails projects have done badly on average. Its average dividends have been much lower than the average FCFE. Hence, it would seem that Conrail has been paying too low dividends.
Problem 13.
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
|
Net Income |
485.10 |
533.61 |
586.97 |
645.67 |
710.23 |
Cap. Exp. |
339.12 |
366.25 |
395.55 |
427.19 |
461.37 |
Depreciation |
331.56 |
358.08 |
386.73 |
417.67 |
451.08 |
Noncash Working Capital |
262.50 |
275.63 |
289.41 |
303.88 |
319.07 |
Change in Noncash WC |
12.50 |
13.13 |
13.78 |
14.47 |
15.19 |
Proportion of Net Cap. Exp. Financed by debt |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
FCFE |
471.06 |
518.71 |
571.15 |
628.87 |
692.40 |
a. Conrail can use its FCFE each year to pay dividends or buy back stock.
b. The greater the uncertainty the lower should the payout be as a proportion of FCFE.
Problem 14.
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
|
Net Income |
66.00 |
77.22 |
90.35 |
105.71 |
123.68 |
144.70 |
Cap. Exp. |
150.00 |
165.00 |
181.50 |
199.65 |
219.62 |
241.58 |
Depreciation |
50.00 |
57.50 |
66.13 |
76.04 |
87.45 |
100.57 |
Noncash Working Capital |
43.00 |
47.30 |
52.03 |
57.23 |
62.96 |
69.25 |
Change in Noncash WC |
4.30 |
4.73 |
5.20 |
5.72 |
6.30 |
|
Proportion of Net Cap. Exp. Financed by debt |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
FCFE (without any debt) |
-34.58 |
-29.76 |
-23.10 |
-14.21 |
-2.60 |
|
FCFE (with 25% borrowing) |
-6.63 |
0.27 |
9.10 |
20.26 |
34.22 |
a., b. The payout will be constrained by the FCFE, which is given in the last two rows.
Problem 15. The required rate of return on equity was .07+1.2(.055) = 13.6%, while Cracker Barrel earned 25% on equity. Hence management is using its resources well, and the money is better retained and invested in the business than returned to investors.
Problem 16.
1995 |
1996 |
|
Net Income |
128 |
140.8 |
Cap. Exp. |
50 |
55 |
Depr. |
24 |
26.4 |
WC |
500 |
550 |
Change in WC |
50 |
|
FCFE |
70.06 |
a. Manpower will have $160.06m. next year to pay out as dividends
b. At the end of next year, Manpower should have 143+70.06-12 = $201.06.
Problem 17.
If Manpower does not plan to use debt, but instead plans to payoff its debt, its FCFE would be 62.2 - 100 = -37.8, as shown below. In this case, its cash balance would drop by 37.8 + 12 = $49.8m. from this year to the next.
1995 |
1996 |
|
Net Income |
128 |
140.8 |
Cap. Exp. |
50 |
55 |
Depr. |
24 |
26.4 |
WC |
500 |
550 |
Change in WC |
50 |
|
FCFE |
62.2 |
Problem 18.
Company |
FCFE |
Dividends Paid |
ROE |
Beta |
Reqd. ROR |
Is ROE > Cost of Equity? |
Dividends/FCFE |
Alexander & Brown |
55 |
35 |
8% |
0.8 |
11.40% |
no |
63.64% |
American President |
60 |
12 |
14.50% |
1.3 |
14.15% |
yes |
20.00% |
OMI Corporation |
-15 |
5 |
4.00% |
1.25 |
13.88% |
no |
-33.33% |
Overseas Shipholding |
20 |
12 |
1.50% |
0.9 |
11.95% |
no |
60.00% |
Sea Containers |
-5 |
8 |
14% |
1.05 |
12.78% |
yes |
-160.00% |
a. Alexander and Brown and Overseas Shipholding both have a bad record on returns on equity, while paying low dividends relative to FCFE. They should increase dividends.
b. Sea Containers should pay less in dividends, since it already has negative FCFE, while earning a high rate of return relative to its cost of equity.
c. If returns in this industry were expected to be higher in the future, I would moderate my recommendations for higher dividends.
Problem 19.
Company |
Payout ratio |
Div. Yld |
Exp. Growth |
Black and Decker |
24 |
1.3 |
23 |
Average for competitors |
32 |
2.58 |
19.1 |
a., b., Black and Decker has a low payout ratio and low dividend yield, relative to competitors. However, this is consistent with the higher growth rate that Black and Decker has. Ceteris paribus, higher growth rates go hand in hand with lower payout ratios. By using the relationship Growth rate = ROEx(Retention ratio), we see that Black and Deckers ROE is 30.26%, while that for its competitors is 30.16. This means that there is no significant difference in Black and Deckers performance. Consequently, it would seem that Black and Decker should increase its payout ratio.
Problem 20.
Problem 21. Using the relationship Growth rate = ROEx(Retention ratio), we can estimate Handy and Harmans ROE to be .23/(1-0.23) = 29.87%. The comparable number for the industry is 18.18%. If Handy and Harmans cost of equity is similar to that of other firms in the industry, its lower payout ratio is justified.
Problem 22. The high payout policy could end up draining the firm of its assets, thus reducing the value of existing bonds. This could increase equity values even though the value of the firm as a whole might drop due to the poor projects.