Things to Note about EVA
DCF Value and NPV
Value of Firm = Value of Assets in Place + Value of Future
Growth
= ( Investment in Existing Assets + NPVAssets in Place) +
NPV of all future projects
= ( I + NPVAssets in Place) +
where there are expected to be N projects yielding surplus value (or
excess returns) in the future and I is the capital invested in assets
in place (which might or might not be equal to the book value of
these assets).
The Basics of NPV
NPVj = : Life of the
project is n years
Initial Investment = :
Alternative Investment
NPVj =
=
NPV to EVA (Continued)
DCF Valuation, NPV and EVA
Value of Firm = ( I + NPVAssets in Place) +
=
=
=
In other words,
A Simple Illustration
Assume that you have a firm with
IA = 100 In each year 1-5, assume that
ROCA = 15% D I = 10
(Investments are at beginning of each year)
WACCA = 10% ROCNew Projects = 15%
WACC = 10%
After year 5, assume that
Firm Value using EVA Approach
Capital Invested in Assets in Place = $ 100
EVA from Assets in Place = (.15 - .10) (100)/.10 = $ 50
+ PV of EVA from New Investments in Year 1 = [(.15 - .10)(10)/.10] =
$ 5
+ PV of EVA from New Investments in Year 2 = [(.15 -
.10)(10)/.10]/1.12 = $ 4.55
+ PV of EVA from New Investments in Year 3 = [(.15 -
.10)(10)/.10]/1.13 = $ 4.13
+ PV of EVA from New Investments in Year 4 = [(.15 -
.10)(10)/.10]/1.14 = $ 3.76
+ PV of EVA from New Investments in Year 5 = [(.15 -
.10)(10)/.10]/1.15 = $ 3.42
Value of Firm = $ 170.86
|
Base Year |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
Terminal Year |
EBIT(1-t) from Assets in Place |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
|
EBIT(1-t): yr 1 |
|
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
|
EBIT(1-t) in yr 2 |
|
|
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
|
EBIT(1-t) in yr 3 |
|
|
|
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
|
EBIT(1-t) in yr 4 |
|
|
|
|
1.50 |
1.50 |
|
EBIT(1-t) in yr 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1.50 |
|
EBIT(1-t) |
|
16.50 |
18.00 |
19.50 |
21.00 |
22.50 |
23.63 |
- Net Capital Expenditures |
10.00 |
10.00 |
10.00 |
10.00 |
10.00 |
11.25 |
11.81 |
FCFF |
-10.00 |
6.50 |
8.00 |
9.50 |
11.00 |
11.25 |
11.81 |
PV of FCFF |
-10.00 |
$ 5.91 |
$6.61 |
$7.14 |
$7.51 |
$6.99 |
|
Terminal Value |
|
|
|
|
|
$236.25 |
|
PV of Terminal Value |
|
|
|
|
|
$146.69 |
|
Value of Firm |
$170.85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBIT(1-t) |
$ 15.00 |
$ 16.50 |
$ 18.00 |
$ 19.50 |
$ 21.00 |
$ 22.50 |
$ 23.63 |
WACC(Capital) |
$ 10.00 |
$ 11.00 |
$ 12.00 |
$ 13.00 |
$ 14.00 |
$ 15.00 |
$ 16.13 |
EVA |
$ 5.00 |
$ 5.50 |
$ 6.00 |
$ 6.50 |
$ 7.00 |
$ 7.50 |
$ 7.50 |
PV of EVA |
|
$ 5.00 |
$ 4.96 |
$ 4.88 |
$ 4.78 |
$ 4.66 |
|
Terminal Value of EVA |
|
|
|
|
|
$ 75.00 |
|
Value: Assets in Place = |
$ 100.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PV of EVA = |
$ 70.85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value of Firm = |
$ 170.85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1. If the increase in EVA on a year-to-year basis has been
accomplished at the expense of the EVA of future projects. In this
case, the gain from the EVA in the current year may be more than
offset by the present value of the loss of EVA from the future
periods.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Return on Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cost of Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBIT(1-t) |
$ 15.00 |
$ 16.70 |
$ 18.10 |
$ 19.50 |
$ 20.90 |
$ 22.30 |
$ 23.42 |
WACC(Capital) |
$ 10.00 |
$ 11.00 |
$ 12.00 |
$ 13.00 |
$ 14.00 |
$ 15.00 |
$ 16.12 |
EVA |
$ 5.00 |
$ 5.70 |
$ 6.10 |
$ 6.50 |
$ 6.90 |
$ 7.30 |
$ 7.30 |
PV of EVA |
|
$ 5.18 |
$ 5.04 |
$ 4.88 |
$ 4.71 |
$ 4.53 |
|
Terminal Value of EVA |
|
|
|
|
|
$ 73.00 |
|
Value: Assets in Place = |
$ 100.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PV of EVA = |
$ 69.68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value of Firm = |
$ 169.68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. When the increase in EVA is accompanied by an increase in the cost
of capital, either because of higher operational risk or changes in
financial leverage, the firm value may decrease even as EVA
increases.
|
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
Term. Yr. |
Return on Capital |
15% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
11% |
Cost of Capital |
10% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBIT(1-t) |
$15.00 |
$16.60 |
$18.20 |
$19.80 |
$21.40 |
$23.00 |
$24.15 |
WACC(Capital) |
$10.00 |
$11.10 |
$12.20 |
$13.30 |
$14.40 |
$15.50 |
$16.65 |
EVA |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
PV of EVA |
|
$4.95 |
$4.87 |
$4.75 |
$4.61 |
$4.45 |
|
Terminal Value |
|
|
|
|
|
$68.18 |
|
Value of Assets in Place = |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PV of EVA = |
$64.10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value of Firm = |
$164.10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1. EVA is closely related to NPV. It is closest in spirit to corporate finance theory that argues that the value of the firm will increase if you take positive NPV projects.
2. It avoids the problems associates with approaches that focus on percentage spreads - between ROE and Cost of Equity and ROC and Cost of Capital. These approaches may lead firms with high ROE and ROC to turn away good projects to avoid lowering their percentage spreads.
3. It makes top managers responsible for a measure that they have more control over - the return on capital and the cost of capital are affected by their decisions - rather than one that they feel they cannot control as well - the market price per share.
4. It is influenced by all of the decisions that managers have to make within a firm - the investment decisions and dividend decisions affect the return on capital (the dividend decisions affect it indirectly through the cash balance) and the financing decision affects the cost of capital.
1. Most or all of the assets of the firm are already in place; i.e, very little or none of the value of the firm is expected to come from future growth.
[This minimizes the risk that increases in current EVA come at the expense of future EVA]
2. The leverage is stable and the cost of capital cannot be altered easily by the investment decisions made by the firm.
[This minimizes the risk that the higher EVA is accompanied by an increase in the cost of capital]
3. The firm is in a sector where investors anticipate little or not surplus returns; i.e., firms in this sector are expected to earn their cost of capital.
[This minimizes the risk that the increase in EVA is less than what the market expected it to be, leading to a drop in the market price.]