Handouts

Intro Introduction
Chapt1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting
LinPred Linear Prediction of a Random Variable
Chapt2 Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting
Chapt3.1 Forecasting from Time Series Models, Part I: White Noise and Moving Average Models
Chapt3.2 Chapter 3, Part II: Autoregressive Models
Chapt3.3 Chapter 3, Part III: Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models
Chapt3.4 Chapter 3, Part IV: The Box-Jenkins Approach to Model Building
Chapt3.5 Chapter 3, Part V: More on Model Identification; Examples
AICC The Corrected AIC
Google Analysis of Google Series, The Constant Term, Problems with t-ratios
IMA Integrated Moving Averages
Intervals Forecast Intervals
NonLin Nonlinear Models
Chaos Chaos and Nonlinear Time Series
BestPred Best Linear Forecasts Vs. Best Possible Forecasts
Scholes Some Drawbacks of Black-Scholes
ARCH  ARCH Models and Conditional Volatility
ARCH.mle  Estimation and Automatic Selection of ARCH Models
UsingR Using R for ARCH Modeling
LongMem  Long Memory in Volatility
DWTest The Durbin Watson Test
UnitRoot Differencing and Unit Root Tests
ARCH-M ARCH-M Models
Chapt4.1 Chapter 4, Part I: Cycles and the Seasonal Component
FED Modeling the Federal Reserve Board Production Index
Pitfalls in Time Series Discusses things that can go wrong, and describes cointegration. (Not an official handout).