Publication date: 02-Jul-2001 Reprinted from
RatingsDirect
Commentary Principles
for Analyzing Structured Finance/Corporate Hybrid
Transactions Analyst:
Elena
Folkerts-Landau, London (44) 20-7826-3703; Adele Archer,
London (44) 20-7826-3830; Blaise Ganguin, Paris (33) 1-4420-6698;
Apea Koranteng, London (44) 20-7826-3531

|
|
|
Standard & Poor's has developed principles underlying its
approach to rating transactions carrying risk that is a hybrid
between pure corporate risk and the risk associated with traditional
securitizations backed by financial assets or diversified pools of
corporates, as in collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transactions.
These are generally known as hybrid transactions and sometimes as
whole business securitizations.
Chief Financial
Benefits Hybrid transactions offer a number of financial benefits to
corporate borrowers relative to standard corporate secured
financing. The benefits arise from the transaction structure's
enhanced financial ability to service debt, which in turn is due to
features borrowed from asset securitization technology.
The enhanced capacity to service debt means that hybrid
transactions support greater financial leverage. They tend to carry
a lower nominal cost of debt, due to higher credit ratings, and they
usually have a longer maturity, which reduces pressure on the
corporate issuer to plan refinancing.
The debt tends to be amortizing rather than bullet, in order to
provide a continuous signal to noteholders of the transaction's
satisfactory financial performance.
Classification Hybrid transactions fall
within the spectrum bounded by pure corporate risk on one end and
commoditized asset-backed securities (ABS) on the other. Since each
transaction falls on a unique point within this spectrum, there is
no standard blueprint for rating these transactions. Generally, the
assets may not be suited to actuarial analysis.
Individual hybrid transactions are structured on a
made-to-measure basis, unlike standard ABS transactions. Whereas
hybrid collateral includes a unique set of operating assets in
ongoing use, and therefore shares many features of standard
corporate ratings, hybrid transactions are reinforced by structural
elements normally utilized in asset-backed securitizations.
The collateral underlying hybrid transactions, however, contrasts
with the collateral of structured ABS, such as mortgage-backed or
credit card-backed securities, insofar as the former normally lacks
an extensive performance track record and may, therefore, be less
amenable to statistical analysis. Furthermore, operating assets are
often less diversified, less homogeneous, and need to be actively
managed in order to generate cash flows. Therefore their
revenue-generating characteristics can often be more closely aligned
with a specific operator's performance.
Ratings Objective Hybrid transactions may
be identified by their specifically adapted structure, their debt
quantum, the presence of credit enhancement, and performance
criteria. Together, these address issues related to the unique
assets being used as collateral. Therefore, any ratings criteria
will address the principles of analysis of these transactions rather
than provide a blueprint for meeting criteria.
Whereas Standard & Poor's criteria for traditional
asset-backed structures involve solving for the level of credit
enhancement that supports a given rating, with other variables
fixed, this is not the case for hybrid transactions. Instead, the
rating of hybrid transactions entails the optimization of a number
of variables, including credit enhancement. Standard & Poor's
objective is to strike the best balance in the value-added of
numerous variables, some of which are more conducive to negotiation
during the structuring process than others.
Relevant Inputs into the Ratings
Analysis The hybrid rating process is essentially
a blending of corporate business risk and structured finance
analysis that builds on the principles of both with the ultimate
goal of maximizing noteholders' control over the cash-generating
assets.
To this end, Standard & Poor's conducts an analysis on the
basis of the following information:
- Business risk assessment;
- Assessment of management and operations;
- Alternative operator/servicer;
- Cash flow structure and modeling;
- Legal and tax structure;
- Credit enhancements and other structural supports; and
- Effectiveness and/or enforceability of mitigants in the form
of covenants and third party activities, such as asset valuation,
servicing, and audits.
Similarities to Corporate
Analysis There is considerable overlap between the
information gathered and analyzed by Standard & Poor's for a
hybrid transaction and a standard corporate rating. Critical inputs
into the business profile of both include:
- Business plan;
- Management intensity;
- Competitive position in the industry;
- Economic development of the industry;
- Barriers to market entry (regulatory or commercial);
- Income diversity through product line, assets, and
geographical distribution;
- Cash flow stability, in terms of the business operator's track
record, the predictability of demand for core products and
services, and a contractual revenue stream generated by
concessions or leases;
- Counterparty risk;
- Growth prospects;
- Capital intensity (with emphasis on proven capacity); and
- Technology risk.
Similarities to Structured Finance
Analysis There is somewhat less overlap between
the information gathered and analyzed for a hybrid transaction and a
standard securitization, because the assets involved are not
self-liquidating financial assets. In addition, hybrids have a far
more limited capacity to lend themselves to an actuarial approach.
Nevertheless, there are some noteworthy similarities between the
approaches taken by Standard & Poor's for hybrid and structured
finance transactions. A detailed cash flow model of assets and their
matching to the debt liabilities is stressed and the results
analyzed. Structural support in the form of a liquidity facility
and/or cash reserve is common and often crucial to the ratings
outcome. Both types of transactions entail debt tranching and
structural subordination, although smaller deals often require a
single tranche. Sequential repayment of debt tranches is frequently
taken into consideration.
More critical in hybrids than in many standard asset-backed deals
is the discipline imposed on the business operator to adhere to
specified behavior and minimum level of performance. This is
accomplished by means of features of the transaction structure, in
particular through:
- Continuous vetting and supervision of information, accounts,
as well as the legal and regulatory framework;
- Covenants, both to constrain the behavior of parties to the
transaction and to provide for possible early termination of the
debt;
- The record of judicial enforcement in the relevant
jurisdiction; and
- The performance and incentives of the servicer.
Link Between Corporate Business Risk and
Hybrid Transaction Ratings The first step in
optimizing the key variables so as to maximize noteholders' control
over the cash-generating assets is to isolate financial risks from
business risks to the extent feasible. Structural features
frequently employed in standard asset securitizations are introduced
into the hybrid structure with the aim of compensating for a host of
financial risks, including operator insolvency risk, the operator's
willingness to pay, set-off risk, secondary tax issues, refinancing
risk, and event risk.
The Building Blocks in
Rating Hybrid Transactions Standard & Poor's
corporate credit rating measures an obligor's ability and
willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due.
Structural reduction of financial risks mitigates the risk
associated with a firm's willingness to service its debt. It also
results in a hybrid transaction structure that is characterized
principally by a significant level of business (i.e., operating)
risk and an uncertain level of cash flow sustainability. The
corporate business risk score serves as Standard & Poor's
starting point in establishing a rating, as is illustrated below.
|
|
|
|
If Standard & Poor's
has already provided a corporate (unsecured) credit rating for the
relevant business operator, then there is potential to raise the
rating for secured creditors, all other factors being equal. This is
a result of the risk mitigation generated by isolating the
transaction structure from the aforementioned financial risks, via a
true sale of the collateral or a favorable secured loan structure
(see, for example, Standard & Poor's article "Analyzing English
Secured Loans" of Sept. 11, 1997).
To date, Standard & Poor's has been involved in rating
secured corporate debt, which, in the U.K., has benefited from an
uplift ranging between one and four notches--and averaging two
notches--over the corporate (unsecured) credit rating of the issuer.
Thereafter, Standard & Poor's may assess additional benefits to
specified debt tranches in response to structural features, such as
the ranking of payments under the payments waterfall structure, a
variety of credit enhancements, and the quantum and mix of debt and
equity.
This may result in an additional ratings uplift--to date up to
six notches, or two ratings categories--over the business risk
score. Because of the numerous permutations of such potential
benefits, there can be no single formula for arriving at a final
rating of hybrid debt tranches. Instead, a broad range of rating
solutions follows.
Key Variables in
Assigning Ratings Standard & Poor's
looks at three types of variables in assigning ratings to hybrid
transactions. First, there are quantitative variables, whose values
tend to be fixed by circumstance or inherent business
characteristics. Second, there are qualitative variables whose
values likewise tend to be fixed. Third, there are qualitative
variables whose values can be negotiated and eventually "tweaked" in
order to optimize their respective value-added in respect of the
transaction rating.
Quantitative variables consist primarily of measures of cash flow
relevant to the business and incentive "hooks" on the sponsor, such
as cash equity and dividend restrictions. The importance of keeping
the sponsor motivated to keep the transaction performing cannot be
understated. Cash flow measures include line items for each relevant
asset, and are not limited to EBITDA. Standard & Poor's
typically looks through all relevant line items in a company income
statement. The aim of the analysis is to unmask and understand cash
flows available for debt service, given that historical cash flows
may not always be the best guide to future performance. The range of
line items may be narrowed, depending on the importance of any
single line item to overall cash flow contribution. An adjustment to
the cash flows is made to reflect accounting technicalities that may
not apply to this application.
As the cash flow data does not normally lend itself to an
actuarial analysis because of its limited history, Standard &
Poor's undertakes a range of stress flow analyses. "Monte Carlo"
simulations can be a useful tool in some cases, but may be
inappropriate when insufficient historical data is available to
develop the requisite assumptions fully. Determining the stress
tests to be applied is the detailed analysis of the business risk
inherent in the transaction and the likely quality of the cash flow
generated.
Among the qualitative variables, whose values are largely fixed
before the hybrid rating process has commenced, are the business
risk assessment, the degree of asset diversity in the collateral
stock, the legal structure, and the degree to which continuous
supervision of operator performance is feasible.
With respect to the business risk, Standard & Poor's assesses
the degree and scope of operating risk and residual financial risk
inherent in the proposed transaction structure, as well as any other
relevant aspects of business risk. Key elements in the legal
structure are the nature of the security that is proposed and the
jurisdiction in which the legal provisions and covenants in the
transaction documents are applied. The nature of the security on the
collateral stock relates in the first instance to the degree to
which a true sale away from the operating sponsor, or equivalent
true control of the relevant cash-generating assets, is achieved. In
addition, Standard & Poor's looks favorably upon a high degree
of delinkage of any proprietary expertise of the business operator
from the assets' cash-generating capacity. This is frequently
effected through a committed and competent servicer, or back-up
servicer. Alternatively, where a committed back-up does not exist
initially, the analysis focuses on the ability, cost, and timing
implications of sourcing alternative operators or servicers as
needed.
Covenants can serve a number of functions, including preserving
repayment capacity; protecting the integrity of the assets and
business position; providing signals and triggers to ensure the
steady flow of information, introduce early warning signals of
credit deterioration, and place the bond trustee in a position of
influence should deterioration occur; and purposes that are standard
in ABS transactions.
This leaves a set of variables in respect of which there is quite
a bit of scope to improve the risk profile of the securitized debt.
Many are structural supports, such as covenants aimed at
disciplining the operator or triggering early termination of the
debt and/or of the secured loan to allow enforcement of the
underlying security when negative signals occur about the business'
future cash-generating prospects. Other negotiable variables include
the final maturity of the debt, the average life of individual debt
tranches, as well as their respective ranking within the payment
waterfall, and the degree of debt leverage. Indeed, the scope for
leverage and, ultimately, the quantum of total debt that can be
raised in a hybrid transaction are positively influenced by the size
of the equity contribution, dividend restrictions, provisions for
cash reserves, and the senior/subordination structure. Subordinated
debt can take the form of traditional securitized debt tranches as
well as, for example, preferred stock.
Taken together, the quantitative and qualitative variables
produce a range of potential rating outcomes. Standard & Poor's
assesses alternative values of the variables (to the extent that
there is scope for their negotiation or "tweaking") in respect of
their relevance, capacity to achieve ratings objectives, and
consistency across both structured and hybrid transactions.
Distinguishing
Characteristics of Hybrid Ratings The ratings of hybrid
transactions to date have tracked the evolution of this type of
transaction as a type of financing tool. Changes can be expected in
respect of ratings volatility as experience is gained.
Volatility On average, the
ratings should turn out to be less variable than corporate ratings
but more variable than traditional ratings of asset-backed
securitizations. Potential ratings volatility arises because of the
likelihood of cash flow volatility within the transaction structure,
in reflection of the inherent business risk. Nevertheless, such
volatility is partially stemmed by the application of structural
supports. Indeed, like corporate ratings, hybrid ratings are far
more sensitive to the inherent business risk than are standard ABS
ratings. In the case of actual hybrid transactions to date, the
business risk has tended to be moderate, representing largely
mature, stable businesses scored within a narrow range of 'BBB' to
'BB'. Furthermore, the frequent lack of an historical record for the
business operators' performance in these deals exacerbates the level
of uncertainty about the future.
Boundaries The upper
boundary of hybrid ratings, in principle, is the rating level that
applies to classical, highly leveraged, highly rated, and
commoditized asset-backed securitizations. In practice, however, the
highest hybrid rating achieved to date has been 'A' on an unwrapped
basis. Standard & Poor's has not as yet rated a hybrid
transaction with original business risk scores below 'BB'.
Operating sponsors whose business risk corresponds to a rating
below 'BB' are unlikely to benefit from a hybrid transaction. This
is so because their future cash flows are, by definition of the
rating, so uncertain that in the opinion of Standard & Poor's
they cannot justify stretching the maturity of the debt, nor
supporting a larger debt quantum than in a pure corporate risk
transaction. Likewise, certain kinds of businesses are unlikely to
benefit from a hybrid transaction. These include businesses that are
capital intensive, are reliant on unique management skills, or are
rapidly evolving (owing to the high degree of technology risk).
In contrast, there are three types of business operations that
are particularly well suited to hybrid transactions. These are:
- Market value transactions, such as the 2000 Marne et Champagne
deal, which involve cash flows generated from the liquidation or
turnover of inventories.
- Transactions since 1997 involving a portfolio of fixed assets,
such as the public houses (pubs), nursing homes, and motorway
service concessions, which involve cash flows generated from
rental payments and other business revenues.
- Transactions involving discrete assets, which generate cash
flows from revenues in a small number of businesses.
The types of companies, asset classes, and industries lending
themselves to hybrid transactions are summarized in chart 2 below.
Also, see Standard & Poor's article "Facing Up to the Rating
Challenges of Whole Business Securitizations" published Dec. 15,
2000.
|
|
|
|
Potential Effect on
Corporate Credit Rating Standard & Poor's
will review the effect of a hybrid transaction on the credit profile
of a firm in much the same way as off-balance-sheet financing,
project financing, or real estate sale-leasebacks. For instance,
debt contracted in the context of a securitization of financial
assets, such as a receivables program, is added back to the balance
sheet with attendant assets for the purpose of ratio calculations.
This permits a better comparison with firms that have chosen other
avenues of financing, since credit measures guidelines assume that
comparisons between companies are not flawed by diverse flexibility
levels and balance-sheet structures.
In the case of a hybrid transaction, which involves the
securitization of operating assets, Standard & Poor's will
consider the strategic and economic importance to the rest of the
company in order to determine whether or not to consolidate the
debt. In any event, both the corporate credit rating and the
unsecured debt rating can be affected, and in different ways. In
addition, Standard & Poor's integrates the implications of the
securitization into its understanding of the company's financial
policy, notably in respect of any reinvestment of the issuance
proceeds, potentially in riskier assets.
If Standard & Poor's assessment is that a firm would not
support the securitized assets in the event of financial stress, the
firm's credit profile is reviewed accordingly. The effect of a
hybrid transaction on a firm's business profile would be negative to
neutral, depending on the quality of the assets securitized and the
attendant cash flow. However, the potentially negative effect could
be somewhat offset by the positive effect of the firm's finances, if
such a transaction results in debt reduction or improved financial
flexibility.
Conversely, Standard & Poor's could deem that the assets
being securitized are key to a firm's strategy, and that the firm
would support them both financially and/or operationally in case of
stress. In this instance, it would be difficult to de-couple the
securitized assets from the firm. The impact of such a transaction
on a firm's credit profile may be negative, as debt leverage would
likely increase while the business profile would remain unchanged.
This
report was reproduced from Standard & Poor's
RatingsDirect, the premier source of real-time, Web-based
credit ratings and research from an organization that has been
a leader in objective credit analysis for more than 140 years.
To preview this dynamic on-line product, visit our
RatingsDirect Web site at
www.standardandpoors.com/ratingsdirect. Standard &
Poor's. Setting The
Standard. |
|
|
|
Published by
Standard & Poor's, a Division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Executive offices: 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020.
Editorial offices: 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041. Subscriber
services: (1) 212-438-7280. Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill
Companies, Inc. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited except
by permission. All rights reserved. Information has been obtained by
Standard & Poor's from sources believed to be reliable. However,
because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our
sources, Standard & Poor's or others, Standard & Poor's does
not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any
information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or
the result obtained from the use of such information. Ratings are
statements of opinion, not statements of fact or recommendations to
buy, hold, or sell any securities.
| |