This set of links below presents articles, analyses, sources of data and other information available on the Internet on the various topics discussed in the macro course. The material is divided in topics classified according to the range of subjects covered in the course.
Chapter 1. Economic Policy for the 21st Century. Economic Report of the President, 1996. The Economic Report of the President is written every year by the Council of Economic Advisors and presents an excellent introduction to US macroeconomic conditions and policies.Chapter 1 is a good starting point summarizing the main macro issues.
Economic Report of the President, 1997. The latest Report, issued in February 1997, is now on line. You ought to be interested in the thinking of the Council of Economic Advisers on some of the topics that we have been discussing. In particular: Changes in NAIRU (the equilibrium unemployment rate) - Chapter 2, pp. 43-45. CPI Measurement issues - Chapter 2, pp. 67-72. Growth and Productivity - Chapter 1, pp. 28-37. Social Security - Chapter 3, pp. 98-117. Increasing inequality of the earnings distribution - Chapter 5.
Measuring the National Economy A set of notes discussing in detail national income concepts such as value added, GDP, GNP and their measurement problems.
Using
the Chain-Weighted Measure to Recalculate GDP
This is a brief note explaining the new method 'chain-weight' method
used (since December 1995) to compute GDP.
Economic Statistics
Briefing Room (ESBR) - White House
This part of the White House web site offers summary data and graphs
of macroeconomic series. While the series are relatively short, it is convenient
to have summary information in one place with links to the originator.
Data is organized in the following categories: output; income; employment,
unemployment, and earnings; production and business activity; prices; money,
credit, and securities markets; transportation; and international statistics.
Excellent resource for latest data on the business cycle.
Economic Chart Dispenser
(ECD)
This is a great resource for analyzing U.S. macro data. You can use
a simple form to choose hundreds of macro series, choose the sample period,
chart the series and transform the charts in several useful formats (such
as levels and rates of change).
Chapter 2.
Economic Report of the President, 1996 Macroeconomic Policy and Performance.
Chapter 2 of the 1996 Economic Report of the President is an excellent
summary of current US macroeconomic conditions and policies.
"Economic
Trends" by the Research Department at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
An excellent montly source for analysis and charts of US business cycle
conditions. Latest economic statistics are charted and the current state
of the economy is discussed in detail. Topics analyzed include: The Economy
in Perspective, Monetary Policy, Inflation and Prices, Economic Activity,
Labor Markets, Regional Conditions, Agricultural Policy, Banking Conditions,
International Trade, Global Savings and Investment.
Business
Cycle Indicators from Media Logic
Media Logic presents U.S. aggregate data (all 256 series from the BEA's
Survey of Current Business). The series are freely available in both graphical
and numerical form. The graphical form is from their program, and the numerical
form is in .wks files. Excellent source of data on the US macroeconomy.
The graphs of macroeconomic variables show the peaks and throughs of U.S.
business cycle: this is very useful to observe the business cycle properties
of various macroeconomic variables.
Morgan Stanley Global
Economic Forum
This service (led by Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley
and a leading Wall Street economist) offers a daily view on macroeconomic
affairs and events around the world. This is the best daily source of information
and commentary on current macroeconomic conditions in US, Europe, Japan,
Canada and selected deveoping countries. On each business day, a number
of issues are discussed. Back issues are available as well. An excellent
source of analysis and information on macroeconomic conditions and policies
in industrial and emerging markets.
Economic Time
Series Page
Many more macro series from the same source as the Economic Chart Dispenser
(ECD). However, you cannot chart them in the same graphical format as the
ECD nor transform the data in various (level and rate of change) formats.
Still, you can create simpler charts, look at the data and download them.
FRED Database of Macroeconomic
Data
At FRED, you find thousands of macro series from the database of the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. One of the largest collections of data
on the U.S. economy.
Krugman
on Nairu and Inflation
An article by an leading international economist discussing why the
U.S. economy cannot grow faster than current rates without an increase
in inflation and why a policy goal of zero inflation is misguided.
Predicting
Real Growth Using the Yield Curve
The yield curve, which relates interest rates to notes and bonds of
various maturities, is often used by economists and business analysts to
predict future economic growth. But how reliable is it ? The above paper
written by two economists at the Cleveland Fed shows that although the
yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period,
it has become much less accurate over the last decade. The article is a
bit technical but quite an interesting reading.
Chapter 8.
Economic Report of the President, 1996. The United States in the World
Economy
Chapter 8 of the 1996 ERP is a first rate discussion of the international
dimensions of US macroeconomic issues.
Olsen & Associates
The Olsen & Associates web site is a good source of forecasts on
exchange rates from a leading private forecasting service.
International
Economics Gateway
This site offers links to sites with non-U.S. data. These links are
broken up into two classifications: international organizations, and national
governments. There is an extensive list of links to many developed and
developing countries official government sites offering macroeconomic data
and information on macroeconomic policies.
Financial Information Services:
World Economic Window
This site offers a variety of economic data for 30 countries around
the world (mostly industrial but also some developing countries). They
offer only graphs of the data but the information can be very useful for
country project assignments.
Chapter 7.
Economic Report of the President, 1996. Investing in Education and Training.
Chapter 7 of the 1996 ERP presents a good discussion of productivity,
technological development and education issues for the US.
Growth
Project at the World Bank
A systematic source of information and data on growth and development
issues.
5. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT IN CLOSED AND OPEN ECONOMIES.
Chapter 8.
Economic Report of the President, 1996. The United States in the World
Economy
Chapter 8 of the 1996 ERP is a first rate discussion of the international
dimensions of US macroeconomic issues.
Krugman
on Supply Side Economics and Its
Decline.
These are two articles by Krugman from Slate (an on-line magazine)
on Supply Side Economics and its Its Decline.
Tax Cuts and Growth
This is an analysis of why tax cuts may not increase economic growth,
i.e. why supply side economics may be flawed.
6. MONEY, INFLATION AND FINANCIAL ASSETS.
M2 Growth
in 1995: A Return to Normalcy
Stability of the demand for monetary aggregates is a crucial condition
for using such aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy. This
article written by two Cleveland Fed economists discusses the recent instability
of monetary aggregates in the US.
Inflation
Targets: The Next Step for Monetary Policy
There has been recently a lot of discussion on whether central banks
should follow policies of inflation targeting. This article by a Cleveland
Fed economist addresses this important policy question.
Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
The Board of Governors of the Fed (whose Chairman is Alan Greenspan)
has a WEB site offering a wealth of information, analysis and data on US
monetary policy. The other 12 Federal Reserve Banks of the Federal Reserve
system have also their WEB sites with information and analysis. Particularly
useful and rich in content are the the following ones:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago
Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Stephen Roach on Inflation
A Wall Street view by the chief economist at Morgan Stanley on the
risks of renewed inflation in the near future.
Eisner on Nairu
and Inflation
An article by an leading economist on why the risks of renewed inflation
are overstated and why the economy can grow faster than current rates without
an increase in inflation.
Chapter 8.
Economic Report of the President, 1996. The United States in the World
Economy
Chapter 8 of the 1996 ERP is a first rate discussion of the international
dimensions of US macroeconomic issues, with a particular attention to exchange
rates, trade deficits and international competitiveness issues.
8. MONEY, INTEREST RATES AND EXCHANGE RATES (FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND THEIR COLLAPSE)
World
Bank Page on the Mexican Peso Crisis
The World Bank web site has an excellent page on the Mexican Peso Crisis
of 1994-95. You can find here data, analysis and contrasting views on the
causes of the Peso crisis.
Mexico Ministry of Finance
Web Site
This site offers a wealth of current macro data on the Mexican economy.
While the data at this site covers just the last few years, it is rather
broad. In addition, various reports and documents on the Mexican economy
are available as well. This is an excellent resource for a country study
of Mexico.
Frankfurt Money Strategist
This is is a research resource originally conceived in late 1992 to
Focus on the German Bundesbank - which continues to set interest rates
for most of the European Continent. FMS provides information for global
investors seeking a deeper understanding of Deutschmark and DM-linked currency,
bond and derivatives markets, and broad analyses of European Monetary Union.
9. THE KEYNESIAN THEORY. THE IS/LM MODEL.
Chapter 2.
Economic Report of the President, 1996 Macroeconomic Policy and Performance.
Chapter 2 of the 1996 Economic Report of the President is an excellent
summary of current US macroeconomic conditions and policies.
Simulations of the Effects
of Macro Policies from A Macroeconomic Model
Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, previously "Laurence H. Meyer & Associates,
Ltd" is a privately owned corporation that specializes in macroeconomic
forecasting and policy analysis. Its founder Lawrence Meyer is now a governor
of Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. They built, maintain
and support the Washington University Macroeconometric model of the United
States Economy (WUMM). At this site they offer a fairly detailed description
of their model and Simulations
of the Effects of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy. The responses
can be compared to those implied by a IS/LM model.
The Ray Fair Macroeconomic
model simulations
FAIRMODEL is another large macroeconometric model developed by Ray
Fair, A Yale economist. At its WEB site you can use the model to forecast
the economy, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example,
you can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects
of the changes on the economy.
10. THE IS/LM MODEL IN AN OPEN ECONOMY. MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY UNDER FIXED AND FLEXIBLE RATES.
Chapter 8.
Economic Report of the President, 1996. The United States in the World
Economy
Chapter 8 of the 1996 ERP is a first rate discussion of the international
dimensions of US macroeconomic issues, with a particular attention to exchange
rates, trade deficits and international competitiveness issues.
Chapter 3.
Economic Report of the President, 1996. Making Fiscal Policy Choices within
and Across Generations
Chapter 3 of the 1996 ERP presents an analysis of the fiscal and budget
problems faced by the US economy.
Simulations of the Effects
of Fiscal Policies from A Macroeconomic Model
Macroeconomic Advisers LLC built, maintain and support the Washington
University Macroeconometric model of the United States Economy (WUMM).
At this site they offer a fairly detailed description of their model and
Simulations
of the Effects of Fiscal Policy.
A Simple
Proposal for Privatizing Social Security
Privitazing the Social Securty System is a hot topic. At the Cleveland
Fed site there is an interesting article discussing this issue.
Making
Sense of the Federal Budget Impasse
What are the fiscal problems faced by the US economy ? This article
by an economist at the Cleveland Fed addresses this issue in detail.
Purposes and Functions
of the Federal Reserve System
This is an excellent Fed publication describing the goals and functions
of Federal Reserve System.
Central Banking Resource
Center
At the site you can find an extensive set of links to central
banks around the world and WEB sites with central banking information.
Minutes of the
Federal Open Market Committee
The Minutes of each meeting of the FOMC are made available a few weeks
after the next regularly scheduled meeting .
The Beige Book
Commonly known as the Beige Book, the "Summary of Commentary on Current
Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District" is a report published
eight times a year in preparation of the FOMC meetings. Each Federal Reserve
Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions through
reports from Bank and Branch directors, interviews with key businessmen,
economists, market experts, and other sources.
Author: Nouriel Roubini, Stern School of Business, New York University.