Definition: The industrial production index measures the physical volume of output of the nation's manufacturing sector, including factories, mines, and utilities.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Availability: Two to three weeks following the reported month
Likely Impact of Financial Markets:
Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected monthly increase
or increasng trend is
considred inflationary, causing bond prices to drop and yields and interst rates to rise.
Ability to Affect Markets:
Analysis of the Indicator:
Goods-producing industries account for about 45% of the economy. The balance, the service sector and construction industry, account for the remaining 55%. They are not covered by this report.
The index is expressed as a percentage of production in a base year.
Currently, the base year is
1987. The data is typically expressed as an increase or decrease from the prior month.
Capacity utilization, released at the same time, measures the extent
to which the nation's capital is
being used in the production of goods. The utilization rate rises and falls with business cycles. As
production increases, capacity utilization rises.
Economists closely watch capacity utilization for signs of inflation
pressures. There is a common
belief that when utilization rises above somewhere between 82% and 85%, prices pressures
increase, resulting in inflation.
The slower the production pace, the better the bond market likes it.
Conversely, a strong production and capacity utilization report leads to
a market sell-off.
A Table of the latest Industrial Production data
Economic Statistics Briefing Room
of the White House.
The latest Industrial
Productin report from the White House.