My own efforts to study the accuracy of perceptions
John Mezias’s failed search
- The old studies had to be wrong
Executive MBA students
- 35% very accurate; errors < 11%
- 35% gross underestimates; errors from -75% to -100%
- 24% gross overestimates; errors from 200% to 4800%
- Job experience did not reduce errors.
An anonymous very large firm
- 40% to 80% said “I don’t know.”