For those of you not in the know, on Tuesday of last week there were a string of elections throughout the country. Many states such as Montana and Virginia held primary elections for statewide races. California held a special election to replace disgraced Republican Congressman Duke Cunningham.
Special elections like this one are used by both political parties to test themes and strategies ahead of the fall elections. It is the best indicator of what will happen in November. Republicans spent $10 million to defend a seat in this heavily Republican area. Democrats ran a strong challenge.
So what happened? Democrat Busby lost 49.5-45.1, an 18% swing from the 2004 total of 58.5-36.5. Many eager prognosticators are pointing out that an 18% swing nationwide would result in Democrats winning 40-50 seats in the House in November.
But the real story is not a 18% swing, but the extremely low turnout. Turnout was less than half the turnout in 2004. Republicans are fed up and many of them stayed home. This would have been great for Democrats if they were able to turn out their base. Busby ran the same John Kerry-style campaign orchestrated by high level Democratic consultants. She avoided taking any important position or saying anything that might offend someone. She ran on corruption and competence and said as little as possible about the number one issue of the day: Iraq.
It is no surprise that Democrats did not care and stayed home on election day as well. Voters do not respond to uninspiring me-too followers. Both parties are searching for real leaders and not the caricatures that we have as Congresspeople today.
And that is why the Democrats will lose this fall. Despite all the advantages of the Republicans screwing up just about everything, I do not predict that we will win more than a few seats, probably short of a majority. It will be the biggest wasted opportunity ever.