One
of the easiest ways to increase your value is to nudge up your
stable growth rate towards your cost of capital. At first sight,
therefore, it looks like increasing the stable growth rate will
always increase terminal value. However, this is only true if you
are internally inconsistent in your assumptions. If you estimate
the reinvestment rate as a function of your expected growth and
return on capital, you set up a trade off:
Reinvestment rate = Stable growth rate/
Return on capital
The trade off is as follows. If you increase
the stable growth rate, the reinvestment rate will go up. Thus,
while you gain from growth, you will lose in cashflows:
Terminal value = EBIT (1-t) (1 - Reinvestment
rate)/ (Cost of capital -g)
In the special case where you assume
that the return on capital is equal to your cost of capital, your
gain from increasing growth will exactly be offset by the loss
from having a higher reinvestment rate, nullifying the effect of
growth. In that case, the terminal value will always be
Terminal value = EBIT (1-t) / Cost of
capital
If you assume that the firm will earn
more than its cost of capital in perpetuity, increasing growth
will increase value. If you assume that it will earn less than
its cost of capital in perpetuity, increasing growth will reduce
terminal value. |