Projects: Equity Instruments and Markets
Overall Valuation Project
Mystery Project (TBA)
1. Overall Valuation Project
Runs the Entire Semester
Due in Two Parts
- This project is designed to apply the valuation techniques we learn in class on companies in the real world.
- It is a group project, with each person in the group picking one company to value.
- The project analysis is due in two parts:
- the discounted cash flow valuations are due midway through the semester. They will not be graded, but will be reviewed and returned
- the entire project report is due in the last session of class.
Step 1: Pick the companies
- Pick a group of companies (one for each person in the group),
making sure you have at least
- one company which has negative earnings currently
(You can download
a data set that contains all firms that reported negative earnings
in the most recent year and had high leverage)
- one company which has high-growth potential. Look
for companies whose earnings or revenues are expected to grow > 50%
over the near future.
download a data set that contains firms with revenue growth that
exceeded 50% over the last year)
- one non-U.S. company
- one service company (retail firm, financial service
Step 2: Discounted Cashflow Valuation
Value the stock in each company using a discounted cash flow model ( You have the discretion to choose the model that you think is most appropriate for that company)
- Estimate how sensitive your value estimates are to changes in your assumptions.
- What are the key drivers of value for your company? (Identify the key assumption or variable that you would focus on in doing your discounted cash flow valuation. Examples wold include the growth rate assumption, the growth period assumption, the net capital expenditure assumption .....)
- Present your valuation in a picture, summarizing the assumptions that you have made. (Be as creative as you can in doing this.)
Step 3: Value relative to comparables
- Prepare a list of "comparable" companies, using
criteria that you think are appropriate
- Choose a multiple that you will use in comparing firms across the group. (You might have to try a number of multiples out before making this choice)
- Evaluate your company against the comparable firms using the multiple that you have chosen for your valuation.
- using simple techniques
- using a sector regression
Step 4: Value relative to the market
- Using the latest regression posted for the market on my web site, and the multiple you chose in step 3, evaluate whether your firm is under or over valued.
- If you have a non-U.S. company which has an ADR listed on it, you can use the U.S. regression
- While I will not require it, I will be very impressed if you run a regression of the multiple in your foreign market (use the 50 largest firms, if you want to reduce your work load) against the variables that determine that multiple.
Step 5: Using Option Pricing Models
- If your negative earnings firm has high leverage, value it using the option pricing model.
- If it does not, do not use the option pricing model.
Step 6: Final Value Estimate and Recommendation
- Consider the values you have obtained from the discounted cash flow, relative and option valuation models.
- How would you reconcile the different estimates of value?
- Make a final recommendation on the stocks in your group.