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Val emails

 


The emails for this class will be collected on this page, arranged chronologically. Since I send quite a few, you can target it on a specific month by going here:

Date
Email content
1/16/23
Welcome back! As I checked through the roster, I noticed a lot of familiar names from corporate finance, and you know that the email deluge that awaits you.I am sure that you are finding that break is passing by way too fast, but the semester will soon be upon us and I want to welcome you to the Valuation class.  One of the best things about teaching this class is that valuation is always timely (and always fun...) Just as examples: Is it time to sell Tesla or to buy it?  Is Cathie Woods a genius or just bonkers? How much does a Super Bowl add to an NFL team’s value? You will find the answers to these and other questions on my blog:

1. Preclass work: I  know that some of you are worried about the class but relax! If you can add, subtract, divide and multiply, you are pretty much home free… Seriously, all I need of you is a familiarity with basic finance, accounting and statistics.  If you feel shaky, you may want to check out the online classes that I have on accounting and financing basics:
1. Accounting class (I am not an accountant, don’t care much for how accountants think about companies and view accounting as a raw material provider.. This class reflects that view): http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcastacctg.htm 
2. Basics of finance (present value, a dash of this and that….): http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcastfoundationsonline.htm 

2. For this class: If you want to get a jump on the class, you can go to the class web page:
As the schedule stands right now, we will meet on Mondays and Wednesdays from 1.30 pm - 2.50 pm  in Paulson Auditorium, starting on January 30. I would love to see all of you in class for every session, but if you have to miss a class or two, because the classes will be recorded and available on three platforms:
a. My website: The recordings of the sessions, with all of the material (slides, links, other) that I use during the session will be available on the webcast page for the class: 
b. YouTube Channel: There is a second option, if your broadband connection is not that great and you are watching on a Tablet/smartphone. There is a YouTube playlist for this class, where all class sessions will be loaded: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUkh9m2BorqnhWfkEP2rRdhgpYKLS-NOJ
c. Brightspace: This is the NYU learning management system and the recorded sessions should be accessible from that system as well.

  When you get a chance, check it out.

3. Syllabus & Calendar: The syllabus for the class is available on the website for the class and is also linked here:
and there is a google calendar for the class that you can get to by clicking on

For those of you already setting up your calendars, it lists when the quizzes will be held and when projects come due. 

5. Lecture notes: The first set of lecture notes for the class is ready. You can either print off the slides, or save them online.  .
Please download and print only this packet on discounted cashflow valuation. The other two packets (yes, there are three…) are not ready yet...

6. Books for the class: First things first. You don’t need a book to get through the class, and if you are budget-constrained, don’t buy any book. If you decide to buy a book, the best book for the class is the Investment Valuation book - the third edition. (If you already have the second edition, don't waste your money. It should work...) You can get it at Amazon or wait and get it at the book store... If you are the law-abiding type, you can buy "Damodaran on Valuation" - make sure that you are getting the second edition. Or, as a third choice, you can try The Dark Side of Valuation, again the second edition, if you are interested in hard to value companies.. Or if you are budget and time constrained, try "The Little Book of Valuation". Finally, if you really want to take a leap, try my newest book, Narrative and Numbers at 
You will find the webpages for all of the books at http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/public.htm. If you want a comparison of the books, try this link: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/valbookcomp.html 

7. Valuation apps: One final note. I worked with Anant Sundaram (at Dartmouth) isn developing a valuation app for the iPad or iPhone that you can download on the iTunes store: http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/uvalue/id440046276?mt=8 
It comes with a money back guarantee...  Sorry, no Android version yet…  

I am looking forward to seeing you in two weeks in class. Until next time!
1/23/23
ahead of next week’s class. First, if this is the first email you are reading, then you should catch up with the earlier one, which are available at the link below:
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/eqemail.html
If you are wondering about the logistics (exams, projects etc.), we will start the first class with the syllabus, which will also lay out the themes for the class:
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/eqsyllspr23.pdf 
As you go through the syllabus, you will notice mention of a project and you can find the details of that project here:
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/eqprojspr23.pdf  
Once we are through the syllabus in session 1, we will turn to an introductory packet (of about 20 pages). The link to that package is below:
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/ValIntroSpr23.pdf 
Please have this ready for the first session. The rest of the class will be covered in the lecture note packets, and I sent you the link to the first one last week (but here it is again):
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/valpacket1spr23.pdf 

Having drowned you with all of that stuff, let me hit with you some pre-class reading (and I don’t think it is too painful). I don’t do much academic research and am supremely uninterested in writing for an echo chamber. Much of what I have written that is original or different has be initially (at least) on my blog.  I spend the first few weeks of each year, talking about the data that I update on my website:
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
The first two updates re on my blog. Please browse through them, because they are relevant for class:
  1. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/01/data-update-1-for-2023-year-that-was.html
  2. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/01/data-update-2-for-2023-rocky-year-for.html
The first class will be a week from today (Monday, January 30, from 1.30 pm - 2.50 pm, NY time) in Paulson Auditorium. Please do come, if you can. If you are unable to, either because of logistical or health reasons, the class will be carried on Zoom. The Zoom link for all of the classes (all 28 sessions) is below:
Join Zoom Meeting:  https://nyu.zoom.us/j/91465550911 
Until next time!
1/29/23
As we wrap up the last weekend before class, I am sending this as a last pre-class email.  We will meet in Paulson from 1.30 pm - 2.50 pm for our first class, and I am, as always, looking forward to it. There is so much to talk about, from the Hindenburg/Adani collision, to one of the most uncommon years in market history in 2022 to Tesla (a constant in every class that I have taught in the last decade). I do realize that some of you will not be able to make it in class for a variety of reasons, and worry not, since the class will be carried live on Zoom. The zoom link for the class is below:
https://nyu.zoom.us/j/91465550911 
 
During the first class, it would have been standard practice for me to hand out the syllabus, project description and the introductory notes (for the first 2 sessions), but since we lived in a digital world, I think it is more efficient to send you the digital copies. So, please download them and bring either a digital or physical copy to class on Monday.
At the risk of repeating myself, the lecture note packets for the class are also ready and you can find the links at the top of the webpage for the class sessions:

I last emailed you a week ago, and In the intervening period, I did post an updated valuation of Tesla, which as is almost always the case with this company, is drawing heated responses from both Tesla true believers and Tesla skeptics:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/01/tesla-in-2023-return-to-reality-start.html
It will be your first valuation of the week (if you have no idea what I am talk about, just wait until tomorrow). Until next time!

1/30/23
We are officially rolling. If you enrolled in the class in the last couple of days, you did miss the first two emails but they are already in the email chronicle, in case you are interested:
Email chronicles: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/eqemail.html
This chronicle will be updated at the end of each week to include all emails sent up until then. 

If you were able to make it today’s class, thank you, and the slides that we used for the class should be at the links below:
Syllabus: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/eqsyllspr23.pdf  
Introduction to Valuation (Slides for Wednesday’s class): http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/Valintrospr23.pdf  
I mentioned the project for the class, but only in very general terms. You can find the specifics at the link below:
Project: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/eqprojspr23.pdf 
A quick note about today's class.  During the session, I told you that that this was a class about valuation in all of its many forms – different approaches (intrinsic, relative & contingent claim), different forums (for acquisitions, value enhancement, investing) and across different types of businesses (private & public, small and large, developed & emerging market).  After spending some time laying out the script for the class (quizzes, exams, weekly tortures), I suggested that you start thinking about forming a group and picking companies. To get the process rolling, here is what I have done
1. Group: Please do find a group to nurture your valuation creativity, and a company to value soon. If you are ostracized, or feel alone, I will create an orphan list and make sure that you are adopted.
2. Company Choice: Once you pick a company, collect information on the company. I would start off on the company's own website and download the annual report for the most recent year (probably 2019) and then visit the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov) (for US listings) and download 10Q filings. (You can pick any publicly traded company anywhere in the world to value. The non-US company that you value can have ADRs (but does not have to have ADRs) listed in the US but you still have to value it in the local currency and local market. You can even analyze a private company, if you can take responsibility for collecting the information.)
3. Webcast of today’s class: The web casts for the first class are up and running in all of their variations (Zoom recording, downloadable video, downloadable audio and YouTube). You can access them by going to:
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcasteqspr23.htm  
4. Lecture Note Packets: Please download the first lecture note packet, when you get a chance. You can either download it as a powerpoint file (though powerpoint bloats file size or as a pdf file)
Powerpoint slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pptfiles/val3E/valpacket1spr23.pdf  
PDF version: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/valpacket1spr23.pdf  
5. Post class test: To review what we did in class today, I prepared a very simple post-class test. I have attached it, with the solution. Give it your best shot.
If you did not get the syllabus, project description and the valuation intro in class this morning, they are all available to print off from this site. I will also be sending out a post class test and solution after each session that should take you no more than 5-10 minutes to do. It is a good way to review the class and I hope that you find it useful. Sorry about the length of this email, but there will be more to come (I promise!)

Attachments: Post-class test and solution.

1/31/23
As promised, the first valuation of the week is upon you, and it is of a company that evokes strong views in both directions, Tesla. I valued Tesla for the first time in 2013, and have valued it every year since, and it still surprises me how much disagreement there is among investors on its future. There are some who believe that Tesla is destined to be the greatest company ever, a beacon of hope that will be worth trillions of dollars. There are others who seem to think of the entire company as a scam, with nothing. Not surprisingly, what you think about Tesla is tied to how you feel about Elon Musk as a person. I have always tried to navigate a middle ground, conceding to the optimists that Tesla is a unique companies that has changed the automobile business and to the pessimists that it is personality-driven and sometime oddly behaved (for a company…I have called it my corporate teenager). To get a sense of my history with Tesla, and where I stand at the moment, take a look at this blog post:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/01/tesla-in-2023-return-to-reality-start.html
Once you have read the post, open up this spreadsheet, and you will notice that the master input page, which is the only page that you have to touch, does not require any knowledge of valuation details, but just a sense of your Tesla story:
https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaJan2023DIY.xlsx  
Make your judgments on each of the key dimensions, from the end game for Tesla (in terms of revenues), to the margins you expect it to earn to its risk, and come up with your valuation of the company. Once you are done, please go to this shared Google spreadsheet and enter your numbers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J3u7ATBHzXRW7Q7holhos9KQLfUxbjMDjEJRGdC4KxA/edit?usp=sharing 
Note that when I valued the company just about a week ago, it was trading at $143. It is now trading at above $170. This is clearly a moving target, but do the best you can and let the crowd valuation play out. 
2/1/23
Today's class started with a test on whether you can detect the direction bias will take, based on who or why a valuation is done. The solutions are posted online on the webcast page for the class. Bringing in the effects of uncertainty and complexity, I argued that these three (bias, uncertainty and complexity) forces are the biggest challenges to good valuation. In fact, they represent the Bermuda Triangle of Valuation, a place where good sense goes to disappear. If you have the time to watch a much, much longer version of this topic, try this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lL5qj_h1RE

We then moved on to talk about the three basic approaches to valuation: discounted cash flow valuation, where you estimate the intrinsic value of an asset, relative valuation, where you value an asset based on the pricing of similar assets and option pricing valuation, where you apply option pricing to value businesses. With each approach, we talked about the types of assets that are best priced with that approach and what you need to bring as an analyst/investor to the table. For instance, in our discussion of DCF valuation and how to make it work for you, I suggested that there were two requirements:  a long time horizon and the capacity to act as the catalyst for market correction. We will be starting on the first lecture note packet on Monday. So, please have it downloaded and ready to go.

Attachments: Post-class test and solution.

2/2/23
Each week, I will use the Thursday email to prod, nag and bug you about the project. So, without further ado, here is where you should be this first week:
  1. Find a group: The groups are yours to create and you should try to have at least 4 people in a group and not more than 8 (that limit is for your own protection).  If you are being ostracized and no one wants you,  you can add your name to the orphan list for the class: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ilonvo5nKx8MFLpRw_PuwFdzGzrr-S5jvldVMkUAz4Q/edit?usp=sharing 
  2. Pick a company: This will require some coordination across the group to make sure that you meet the minimum criteria (at least one money loser, high growth, emerging market, service company). In making this choice, remember that you can value any business you want, public or private, small or large, listed in any market. There are at least a couple of entrepreneurs in the class who are valuing their own businesses and  quite a few valuing privately owned family businesses. Once you have picked a company, please enter your company name in the Google class master spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wvwwXNObRaQxzGW__Zc1UeECmKUT8FOmH-drQUN4Z_M/edit?usp=sharing 
  3. Annual Report: Find the most recent annual report for your company. If you are valuing a private business, just ask for income statements and balance sheets for as long as you can get them (I will assume that you know the owner or better still, you are the owner).
  4. Public filings: If your company has quarterly reports or filings pull them up as well. 
In doing all of this, you will need data and Stern subscribes to one of the two industry standards: S&P Capital IQ (the other is Factset). As MBAs, you should have access to Capital IQ on the Stern Dashboard, but you need to ask for access, I have attached a pdf file that shows you how. 

This is the seventh or eighth email for the class. If you have not been receiving these emails (which means that you are reading this in the chronicles), it is worth noting that I don’t keep an email list for the class. I use the Google groups that Stern creates. In theory, students registered for the class should be on Albert (the NYU official registration/grading site), Brightspace and Google Groups, and the three should be synced, but this is a university. What should be true in theory is not always the case in practice. I can do very little to alter the Google groups. If you are finding yourself locked out of the email list, start with IT, and if they won’t help, I will figure out a way to add you in. If you are a non-Stern student, and have an email address that does not end in@stern.nyu.edu, note that you were assigned a stern email address when you joined this class, and you should be able to find that address. Here is what I got from IT when I asked:
Since you are teaching a Stern course, all your students, exchange and non-Stern, are provided with a Stern account and Gmail.
You can have them all head over to 'start.stern.nyu.edu' to activate their account.
You can also provide them our website in regards to how to access their emails:


On a completely unrelated note, it may be a little early to be talking to me or the TAs, but here are the logistical details on office hours (for all of us) and the TA review sessions that will occur every week:
My office hours: In person, in KMEC 9-69, and on zoom (with links below)
My office hours:  You can come my office, in person, in KMEC 9-69 or on Zoom, since NYU is not allowing in-person yet, will be at:
I will add on more hours as we get closer to quizzes and exams and project due dates.
TA office hours
Bansi and Rakesh will be having office hours as well. I will leave it to them to reach out to you (and they already might have) will details.. Until next time!

Attachments: Capital IQ Access Instructions

2/3/23
A few quick notes. The first is that I did put up an in-practice webcast today. It is a very basic webcast on how to read a 10K, using P&G as my example. The links are below:
Downloadable video:  http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/Webcasts/Reading10Knew.mp4 
YouTube Video:   https://youtu.be/UzUJzdn7c2w?list=PLUkh9m2BorqmRAGzJb5OIvTAKZZu9HWF- 
P&G 10K: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/PG/Reading10KPG.pdf
P&G Valuation (excel spreadsheet): http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/PG/P&Gvaluationfixed.xls
It is a very old webcast,and I need to do a newer version, but I am way too lazy.

Second, for those of you who have already valued Tesla (the first valuation of the week), thank you! For those of you who have been putting it off, there is still time to add your input to the crowd:
If you scroll to the right, and towards the top, you will see the average and median values that the crowd has estimated. In addition, I followed up with a second post on the pushback that I have received on my Tesla online valuation, and it is less about defending my valuation (since there is nothing gained by doing that) and more about looking at fundamental valuation questions:

Finally, for those of you who are late to this party, we have run out of beer and chips, but you can read all of the emails that I have sent so far in the class: