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This 28-session equity valuation class will be recorded starting January 22, 2025, and the sessions will be online, though recordings will be acceible on multiple platforms. You can get the supporting lecture notes by clicking on the pdf files below - the pages covered by each lecture are provided next to each lecture. For the syllabus and other details, visit the home page .

Lecture Notes

  1. Introduction to Valuation (Updated for Spring 2025 class).
  2. Part I: Discounted Cashflow Valuation: This is a pdf file and works well if you have an iPad or tablet to read it on If you have trouble printing this file, download the powerpoint file. You can then choose to print the slides, one to a page, two or a page, in note format or whatever your heart desires. (Updated for Spring 2025 class)
  3. Part II: Relative Valuation and Private Company Valuation : This is a pdf file and works well if you have an iPad or tablet to read it on If you have trouble printing this file, download the powerpoint file. You can then choose to print the slides, one to a page, two or a page, in note format or whatever your heart desires. (Updated for Spring 2025 class).
  4. Part III: Real Options, Acqusition Valuation and Value Enhancement: This is a pdf file and works well if you have an iPad or tablet to read it on If you have trouble printing this file, download the powerpoint file.You can then choose to print the slides, one to a page, two or a page, in note format or whatever your heart desires. (Updated for Spring 2025 class).

  5. Part IV: Closing Presentation

Webcasts
This page will include the webcasts from the current class. The webcasts can be accessed in one of four ways:

  1. Streaming video (The file will be streamed to your computer. This will work only if you have a good internet connection, but should be of the best quality and the most information)
  2. Video podcast (The file will be downloaded to your computer and you can watch the video using Quicktime or video software or on your iPod)
  3. Audio podcast (The .mp3 file will be downloaded as an audio file and can be played on any audio player). The AV system used to record the lectures has changed and I think it is much improved.
  4. YouTube videos (if you have slower internet connection and/or a small device).

Options for following class

You can follow this class on YouTube. I have created a playlist for the class, where the sessions will be posted sequentially with links to slides and other material.

Finally, you can read the emails that I send to the class by this link.

Session Webcasts Topics covered Lecture notes
Preview of the class
What is this class about?
 

1 (1/22/25)

  1. Recorded session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Valuation: Priors and Preconceptions (Self test - take it when you get a chance)

  1. Syllabus for class

Class Structure and Logistics
Post-class test and solution.
Valuation Tools Webcast #1
Downloadable webcast
YouTube
Much of the raw material (data) that we use for valuation comes from annual reports and financial filings. (10, 10Q). In this presentation, I lay out a template for extracting information from these filings, separating the stuff that matters from the stuff that does not, using P&G in September 2012 as an illustration. (This webcast is almost ten years old, but annual reports and 10Ks have become even denser and longer since, making the exercise of separating what matters fro,m what does not even tricker.)
  1. Presentation
  2. P&G: 10K
  3. P&G: Valuation (Excel spreadsheet)

2 (1/27/25)

  1. Recorded session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Valuation bias: A test and my solutions
  1. Project Description
  2. Introduction to Valuation (1-9)

Valuation Project/Grading Criteria
The Bermuda Triangle of Valuation
Intrinsic Valuation: The Big Picture
Relative Valuation: The Big Picture
Real Options

Post-class test and solution.
Valuation of the week #1

Bubble or Bust: Valuing the S&P 500 Index!

  1. My blog post on valuing the index
  2. Valuing the S&P 500 index on January 1, 2025
Google shared spreadsheet

3 (1/29/25)

  1. Recorded session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Cash flow consistency: A test (Congoleum)
  1. Introduction to Valuation (11-End)
  2. Lecture Note Packet 1 (1-6)


Intrinsic Valuation: The Big Picture
Relative Valuation: The Big Picture
Real Options
First steps on intrinsic valauation
- DCF forms
- The It Propositoin

Post-class test and solution.
Weekly Challenge #1

Reconciling firm and equity valuation

  1. Weekly challenge #1
  2. Solution

Valuation Tools Webcast #2
Collecting data

The first step in analysis is collecting data on your company, as well as macro data and this webcast covers the basics.
  1. Webcast
  2. SEC website
  3. SEC Live
  4. FRED (Federal Reserve)

4 (2/3/25)

  1. Recorded session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube

 

Risk free Rates: A test
  1. Lecture note packet 1: Pages 8 -37

DCF inputs: The Discount Rate
- Setting the table
- Risk and the marginal investor

The Risk free Rate
- The inflation effect
- Estimation

Post-class test and solution
Valuation of the week #2

Valuing AI: Nvidia, DeepSeek and the Rest of the Story

  1. My blog post on Nvidia from September 2024 (pre DeepSeek)
  2. My blog post on DeepSeek from January 2025 (post DeepSeek)
  3. My valuation of Nvidia in January 2025
Google shared spreadsheet

5 (2/5/25)

  1. Recorded session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube

 

Equity Risk Premiums
  1. Lecture note packet 1: Pages 38-58
  2. Sovereign Ratings - January 2025
  3. Sovereign CDS Spreads - January 2025

Riskfree Rates - Low and Lower

Equity Risk Premiums
- Historical Equity Risk Premium
- Country Risk Premium
Company Equity Risk Premium

Post class test and solution
Weekly Challenge #2 Country risk and risk premiums Weekly challenge # 2
Solution
Valuation Tools Webcast #2a
Estimating a risk free rate

Estimating a risk free rate

Estimating a risk free rate should be simple but it is often not. In some currencies, where there are no default free entities, it may take some work getting to a risk free rate. In this webcast, I look at the mechanics of this adjustment.

  1. Presentation
  2. Moody's ratings (3/13)
  3. CDS spreads (3/13)

6 (2/10/25)

  1. Recorded session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube

 

Implied Equity Risk Premium
  1. Lecture note packet 1: Pages 59-77

Implied Equity Risk Premiums
- Intuition
- Changes over time
- Connection to Market Views
- Relationship to other risk premia

First steps on relative risk

Post class test and solution
Valuation of the week # 3

Aramco: A loaded bet on Oil and the House of Saud

  1. Aramco's Prospectus
  2. My blog posts on Aramco
    1. A coming out party for the world's largest company
    2. Regime Change and Value
  3. Updated financials for Aramco (through 2025)
  4. My updated valuation of Aramco on Feb 11, 2025
Google Shared Spreadsheet

7 (2/12/25)

  1. Recorded Zoom session
  2. Video podcast (downloadable)
  3. Audio podcast (downloadable)
  4. YouTube


Betas: A test Lecture note packet 1: Pages 79-104
First steps on betas
Measuring Relative Risk (Betas & Alternatives)
The cost of debt
Cost of Capital
Post class test and solution
Weekly Challenge # 2a

Implied Premium versus Riskfree Rate

Implied premium challenge, data and solution
Valuation Tools Webcast #3
Implied Equity Risk Premiums
The logic and the measurement questions behind equity risk premiums are examined in this webcast. Presentation
Spreadsheet
S&P 500 on buybacks
S&P 500 earnings
Valuation Tools Webcast #4
Estimate a company's equity risk premium
  1. Webcast
  2. Presentation
  3. ERP & GDP spreadsheet