NYU Stern


Below are highlights of my published papers, books, working papers and professional affiliations.

Published Papers


"Business Cycle and Economic Welfare," with Jang-Ok Cho and Hyung Seok E. Kim, Review of Economic Dynamics, May 2014

"Demography and Low-frequency Capital Flows," with David Backus and Espen Henriksen

"The Farm, The City, and The Emergence of Social Security," with Elizabeth M. Caucutt, and Nezih Guner

"A Theory of Firm Decline," with Gian Luca Clementi, and Sonia DiGiannatale, Journal of Economic Dynamics, 13, 2010, 861-885

"Stock Grants as a Commitment Device," with Gian-Luca Clementi and Cheng Wang, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30 (2006), 2191-2216.

"Monetary Policy and The Financial Decisions of Firms," with Vincenzo Quadrini, Economic Theory, 27(1), 2005.

"Optimal Monetary Policy in a Phillips Curve World," with Vincenzo Quadrini, Journal of Economic Theory, 2004, 118, 2, 174-208.

"Aggregate Consequences of Limited Contract Enforceability," with Ramon Marimon and Vincenzo Quadrini, Journal of Political Economy, 2004, 112, 817-847.

"Common Currencies vs. Monetary Independence," with Vincenzo Quadrini, The Review of Economic Studies, 2003, 70, 785-806.

"Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," with Vincenzo Quadrini, American Economic Review, 2001, 91, 1286-1310.

"The Cost of Losing Monetary Independence: The Case of Mexico," with Vincenzo Quadrini, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, May 2000.



"A Neoclassical Model of the Phillips Curve Relation," with Vincenzo Quadrini, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999, 4, 165-193.

"Privatizing Social Security," with Jorge Soares, Review of Economic Dynamics, 1999, 3, 731-55.

"A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," with Jorge Soares, Journal of Political Economy, 1999, 107, 135-160.

"Financial Markets, Specialization, and Learning by Doing," with Bruce Smith, Research in Economics, 1998, 52, 333-361.

"Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Business Cycle," with Kwangee Nam, Economic Theory, 1998, 12, 599-620.

"The Role of Monetary Shocks in Equilibrium Business Cycle Theory: Three Examples," with Gary Hansen, European Economic Review, 1998, 42, 605-617.

"Business Cycle Analysis Without Much Theory: A Look at Structural VARs," with Mark Dwyer, Journal of Econometrics, 1998, 83, 57-88.

"The Replacement Problem," with Jeremy Greenwood and Mehmet Yorokoglu, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1997, 40, 3, 457-500.

"Post-War British Economic Growth and The Legacy of Keynes," with Lee Ohanian, Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105, 439-472.

"The Welfare Costs of Nominal Wage Contracting," with Jang-Ok Cho and Louis Phaneuf, The Review of Economic Studies, 1997, 64, 465-484.

"Calibrated Models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1997, 13, 3, 55-69.

"Unanticipated Money Shocks and the Business Cycle Reconsidered," with Gary Hansen, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, 4, 624-648.

"The Time Series Properties of Real Wages, Consumption and Asset Returns in an Economy with Optimal Labor Contracting," with Masao Ogaki, 1996, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 2, 119-134.

"Will Social Security Survive the Baby Boom?" with Jorge Soares, 1996, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 45, 89-121.



"Indivisible Assets, Equilibrium and The Value of Intermediation," with Bruce Smith, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 1995, 4, 48-76.

"Economic Growth and Business Cycles," with Edward C. Prescott, in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, edited by Thomas F. Cooley.

"Money and The Business Cycle," with Gary D. Hansen, in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research.

"The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," with J.O. Cho, Economic Theory, 6, 13-34

"Equilibrium Business Cycles with Idle Resources and Capacity Utilization," with Gary D. Hansen and Edward C. Prescott, Economic Theory, 6, 35-50.

"The Channels of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 77, 131-137.

"Employment and Hours over the Business Cycle," with J. Cho, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18, 1994, 411-432. Reprinted in Spanish and published in Cuadernos Economicos.

"A Theory of Optimal Denominations for Government Liabilities," with Bruce Smith, Economic Theory, 3, 4, 1993, 597-624.

"Policy Analysis with Modern Business Cycle Models," in Macroeconomic Modelling and Economic Policy, Mikael Ingberg and Seppo Honkapohoja, editors, Elsevier, North Holland.

"Tax Distortions in a Neoclassical Monetary Economy," with Gary Hansen, Journal of Economic Theory, 58, December 1992.

"Pricing Interest-Sensitive Claims When Interest Rates Have Stationary Components," with Stephen LeRoy and William Parke, Journal of Fixed Income, 1, 1, March 1992.

"The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations," with Gary Hansen, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 23, August 1991, 481-503.

"The Cyclical Behavior of Prices," with Lee Ohanian, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 1, August 1991, 25-60.

"Asymptotic Likelihood Based Prediction Functions," with W. Parke, Econometrica, September 1990.



"The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," with G. Hansen, American Economic Review, September 1989, 733-748.

"Dynamic Coalition Formation and Equilibrium Policy Selection," with Bruce Smith, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 (1989), 211-233.

"Predictive Efficiency in Simple Nonlinear Models," with W. Parke and S. Chib, Journal of Econometrics, January 1989.

"Likelihood and Other Approaches to Prediction in Dynamic Models," with W. Parke, Journal of Econometrics, 35 (1987), 119-142.

"Inflation, Taxes and the Price of Housing Assets," with K. Salyer, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1987.

"What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics? A Reply to McAleer, Pagan, and Volker," American Economic Review, June, 1986. Reprinted in Modelling Economic Series: Readings in Econometric Methodology, edited by C.W.J. Granger, 1990, Oxford University Press.



"Atheoretical Macroeconometrics: A Critique," with Stephen LeRoy, Journal of Monetary Economics, November, 1985. Reprinted in International Library of Critical Writings in Econometrics: Macroeconomic Modelling, Kenneth F. Wallis, editor. Reprinted in The Methodology of Econometrics, Dale J. Poirier, editor.

"Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: A Review Essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, March, 1985.

"A New View of the Market Structure - Performance Debate," with Thomas Hall and James Bothwell, The Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. XXXII, No. 4, pp. 397-417, June, 1984.

"Econometric Policy Evaluation: Comment," American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 3, pp. 467-470, June, 1984. Reprinted in The Methodology of Econometrics, Dale J. Poirier, editor.

"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions: Comment," Econometric Reviews, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 100-104, 1984.

"Specification Analysis by Discriminating Priors: An Application to the Concentration Profits Debate," Econometric Reviews, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1982.

"Efficiency in the Provision of Health Care: An Analysis of Health Maintenance Organizations," with James Bothwell, Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 48, No. 4, April, 1982.

"A Theory of Growth Controls," with C.J. LaCivita, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, 1982.

"Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," with Stephen LeRoy, American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 5, 1981.

"Recursive Estimation of Price Expectations in Economics," Analysis and Optimization of Systems, A. Bensoussan and J.L. Lions, Editors, Springer-Verlag, December, 1980.


Prior to 1980

"Allocative Efficiency and Distributional Equity in Water Pricing and Finance: A Post Proposition 13 Analysis," with C.J. LaCivita, National Tax Journal, Vol. XXXII, No. 2, 1979.

"Rational Expectations in American Agriculture: 1867-1914," with S.J. DeCanio, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LIX, No. 1, February, 1977.

"A Note on Optimal Smoothing for Time Varying Coefficient Problems," with K.D. Wall and B. Rosenberg, Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1977.

"Earnings and Employment Dynamics of Manpower Trainees: An Exploratory Econometric Analysis," with T.W. McGuire and E.C. Prescott, Research in Labor Economics, R. Enrenberg, Editor, JAI Press, 1977.

"Generalized Least Squares Applied to Time Varying Parameter Problems: A Comment," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1977.

"Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," with E.C. Prescott, Econometrica, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 167-184, January 1976.

"A State Space Approach to the Estimation of Price Expectations," Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, December, 1976.

"A Comparison of Robust and Varying Parameter Estimates of a Macroeconometric Model," The Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 373-388, June, 1975.

"Varying Parameter Regression: A Theory and Some Applications," with E. C. Prescott, The Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 463-473, October, 1973.

"An Adaptive Regression Model," with E.C. Prescott, International Economic Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 364-371, June, 1973.

"Tests of An Adaptive Regression Model," with E. C. Prescott, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LV, No. 2, pp. 248-256, May, 1973.



Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, editor, Princeton University Press, January 1995.


Other Publications

"The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act: Accomplishments and Limitations" with Viral Acharya, Matthew Richardson, Richard Sylla, and Ingo Waler, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol 23. No. 1.

"Market Failures and Regulatory Failures: Lessons from Past and Present Financial Crises" with Viral Acharya, Matthew Richardson and Ingo Walter, forthcoming in Financial Sector Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets edited by Masahiro Kawai and Eswar Prasad, Brookings Institution Press (Washington, DC), 2010.

"Manufacturing Tail Risk - A Perspective on the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009" with Viral Acharya, Matthew Richardson and Ingo Waler, Foundations and Trends in Finance, volume (4), 2010.

"Rethinking Compensation in Financial Firms" with Gian Luca Clementi, Matthew Richardson and Ingo Walter, Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System, ed. Acharya and Richardson, 2009, John Wiley & Sons, 132-144.

"Mortgages and Households" with Andrew Caplin, Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair Faield System, ed. Acharya and Richardson, 2009, John Wiley & Sons, 224-233.


Working Papers

"Rating Agencies", with Harold Cole. (March 2014)

"Risky Investments with Limited Commitment", with Ramon Marimon and Vincenzo Quadrini. (November 2012)

"Executive Compensation: Facts" with Gian Luca Clementi. (November 2009)

"The New Economy: Some Macroeconomic Implications of an Information Age", with Mehmet Yorukoglu, November 2001.

"Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare", with Jang-Ok Cho, December 2000.

"Monetary Policy and The Financial Decisions of Firms", 1997 (revised November 1999), with Vincenzo Quadrini.

"Nominal Bond Return and the Money Growth Rate in a Simple Equilibrium Model", 1997, with David Chapman.


Professional Affiliations and Activities

Member, American Economic Association
Member, Council on Foreign Relations
Member, Economic Club of New York
Member, Econometric Society
Member, Former President, Society for Economic Dynamics
Member, NBER, Conference on Income and Wealth
Coordinating Editor, The Review of Economic Dynamics
Editorial Board Appointments: Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988-present; previously, American Economic Review, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Econometric Reviews, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Review Editor, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989-1994
Co-Editor, Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy